Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences ›› 2019, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (7): 1360-1369.DOI: 10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2019.07.020

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The Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation of the Effects of Cotton Technical System Based on AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process Model

BAI Ping1, Denglu1,2,3, Zhang Pengzhong4, Pahaerti·Maimaiti4   

  1. 1. Economic Research Institute of Development and Reform Commission of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830000, China.
    2. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China.
    3.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    4 National Cotton Engineering Technology Research Center, Urumqi 830011, China.
  • Received:2019-04-15 Online:2019-07-20 Published:2019-09-05
  • Correspondence author: BAI Ping(1975-), Female, native place: Jiangyou, Sichuan, Associate Professor, research field: Agricultural economic management, macroeconomic investment and financing,(E-mail) 360021125@qq.com
  • Supported by:
    Supported by Key R & D Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region "Integration and Demonstration Application of Cotton Cost-saving and Profit-increasing Technical System"

基于AHP层次分析模型的棉花节本增效技术体系综合效益评价

白萍1, 邓路1,2,3, 张鹏忠4, 帕尔哈提·买买提4   

  1. 1.新疆维吾尔自治区发展与改革委员会经济研究院,乌鲁木齐 830001;
    2.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐 830011;
    3.中国科学院大学,北京 100049;
    4. 国家棉花工程技术研究中心,乌鲁木齐 830091
  • 通讯作者: 邓路(1988-),男,四川隧宁人,博士研究生,研究方向为气候变化与环境演变与生态经济,(E-mail)119311793@qq.com
  • 作者简介:白萍(1975-),女,四川江油人,副教授,博士,研究方向为农业经济管理、宏观经济投融资,(E-mail)360021125@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    自治区重点研发任务专项“棉花节本增效技术体系集成与示范应用”(201600341)

Abstract: 【Objective】 To study and evaluate the cotton cost-saving and benefit-increasing technical system. 【Method】 The AHP analytic hierarchy process was used to construct the model to evaluate the use effect of the cotton-based synergy technology system from multiple perspectives. 【Result】 The yields of the demonstration area of cotton-based synergy technology system in Shawan County in the 2016 and 2017 were 0.6 kg/667m2 and 0.63 kg/667m2, respectively, which was much higher than the average output of 0.2 kg/667m2, 0.22 kg/667m2 in Tacheng area. In other words, they were 198% and 189% higher than the average yield in Tacheng area, respectively. The importance of the main factors (measures) affecting Shawan cotton production was scored by the AHP model, and the economic benefit score was 0.776,6. The resource saving score was 0.154,9, and the disaster prevention and mitigation score was 0.068,5. In the year 2016 and the year 2017, through cooperation with cooperatives, the company increased the income by 1.456 million yuan, through sophisticated seeding, 273,000 yuan cost was saved and the utilization efficiency of nitrogen, potassium and phosphate fertilizer were increased by 4.1 times, by 3.9 times and by 4.3 times through soil testing formula and precise fertilization, respectively. Cotton production was mainly affected by meteorological disasters such as low temperature, strong winds and heavy rain.【Conclusion】 The use of the cotton-based synergy technical system can effectively increase cotton yield. Ranking of the importance of each factor in the evaluation of cotton cost-saving and efficiency-increasing technical system: economic benefit > resource conservation > disaster prevention and mitigation. Through the cooperation with cooperatives, sophisticated sowing, soil testing formula and sophisticated fertilization, the cost of cotton planting can be effectively reduced, and the yield and economic benefits of cotton can be improved. Climate disasters have a certain impact on cotton planting, but in general, the impact on the demonstration area is small.

Key words: cotton; cost-saving and benefit-increasing technical system; AHP hierarchy process analysis; benefit analysis

摘要: 【目的】研究与评价棉花节本增效技术体系综合效益。【方法】运用AHP层次分析法构建模型,从多个角度评价棉花节本增效技术体系的使用效果。【结果】2016~2017年在沙湾县使用棉花节本增效技术体系示范区产量分别为402和419 kg/667m2,高于塔城地区的平均产量135和145 kg/667m2,分别高出塔城地区平均水平198%和189%,应用AHP模型对影响沙湾棉花生产的主要因素(措施)进行重要性打分,得出经济效益得分0.776 6,资源节约得分0.154 9,防灾减灾得分0.068 5。(3)2016~2017年通过与合作社合作,增加收益145.6×104元;精量播种节约成本27.3×104元;应用测土配方与精量施肥,使氮肥利用效率提高4.1倍,钾肥利用效率提高3.9倍,磷肥利用效率提高4.3倍。棉花产量主要受到低温、大风与暴雨等气象灾害的影响。【结论】棉花节本增效技术体系的使用能有效提高棉花产量。棉花节本增效技术体系评价各因素重要性排序:经济效益>资源节约>防灾减灾。通过与合作社合作、精量播种、测土配方和精量施肥等手段的使用,能有效降低棉花种植的成本、提高棉花的产量与经济效益。气候灾害对棉花种植产生了一定的影响,但对示范区的影响较小

关键词: 棉花, 节本增效技术体系, AHP层次分析, 效益分析

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