Abstract:

【Objective】 To identify drivers of declining spring wheat cultivation area in Xinjiang and evaluate industry development potential. 【Methods】 We analyzed 2023-2025 data on planting area, high-yield programs, varietal traits, and policy impacts. 【Results】 Xinjiang’s spring wheat area declined continuously, reaching 247,000 hm² (3.7 million mu) in 2024 and falling further to 209,000 hm² (3.14 million mu) in 2025.Four key drivers were identified: Subsidy disparities (spring wheat: 115 yuan/mu vs.winter wheat: 52% higher); Lower profitability (net profit 980-1,280 yuan/667m² below cotton); Water competition (irrigation guarantee <65%; Agricultural water deficit: 1.26 billion m²);Heightened climate risks (late spring cold in North Xinjiang and dry-hot winds in South Xinjiang reducing yields by 15%).Despite high-yield potential (e.g., Liangchun 1758 set a national record [848.42 kg/667m²] with high quality [crude protein ≥13.27%]), industry advancement is constrained by obsolete cultivars (>9 years in use) and prevalent on-farm seed retention (64.3%).Resolving the tension between high-yield potential and area decline requires policy adjustments, varietal innovation, and efficient resource use for sustainable development. 【Conclusion】 Equalizing subsidies (to 230 yuan/667m² in 2025), adopting water-saving technologies, and accelerating new variety uptake are essential to stabilize production.

Key words: spring wheat; production systems; sustainability; climate adaptation

摘要：

【目的】 研究新疆春小麦种植面积缩减的驱动因素及产业发展潜力。【方法】 收集分析2023~2025年新疆春小麦种植面积、高产创建、品种品质等数据。【结果】 新疆春小麦种植面积持续萎缩,2024年降至24.7×10⁴ hm²(370万亩),2025年进一步下滑至20.9×10⁴ hm²(314万亩),该趋势主要受四大因素驱动:政策补贴差异(春麦补贴115元/667m²,仅为冬麦的52%)、经济效益劣势(净收益较棉花低980~1 280元/667m²)、水资源竞争(灌溉保证率<65%,农业用水缺口12.6×10⁸ m²)及气候风险加剧(北疆春寒、南疆干热风致减产15%)。尽管高产潜力显著,如粮春1758创全国单产纪录(848.42 kg/667m²)且品质优异(粗蛋白≥13.27%),但品种更新滞后(主栽品种推广超9年)与自留种率高(64.3%)制约了产业升级。需通过政策优化、品种迭代与资源高效利用,破解“高产潜力”与“面积下滑”的矛盾,推动产业可持续发展。【结论】 统一补贴标准(2025年提至230元/667m²)、推广节水技术及加速新品种应用是稳定春小麦生产的关键路径。

关键词: 春小麦, 产业, 现状, 趋势