Abstract:

【Objective】 To reveal the dynamic process of the change of agricultural production structure and distribution in Tarim River Basin, sort out the context and stage characteristics of agricultural development, and explore the driving factors of the change of agricultural production structure and distribution.【Methods】 Based on cotton production panel data of five prefectures of Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2020, the evolution characteristics of cotton production and distribution in the basin were analyzed descriptively by using concentration index, and the driving factors were analyzed quantitatively by using grey correlation model.【Results】 In the adjustment of planting structure in Tarim River basin, cotton gradually occupied the dominant position, contributing 63.34% to the expansion of crop production scale in the whole basin.The production of long staple cotton fluctuated greatly, and the proportion of the whole Xinjiang and the river basin showed a trend of "double decline".The regional layout gradually changed from "Kashgar area as the main area, Aksu area as the auxiliary area" to "Aksu area as the main area, Kashgar area as the auxiliary area, and Hotan area gradually withdrew", and the county area showed agglomeration development; Cotton production is affected by natural conditions, factor input, industrial policy, industrial chain drive, comparative benefits and other factors, among which agricultural plastic film, fertilizer, agricultural machinery, pesticides and other material inputs have the greatest impact.【Conclusion】 As the main cotton producing area in Xinjiang, the status of Tarim River basin is increasingly consolidated.It is suggested that the future focus should be on continuously optimizing the regional layout of cotton, strengthening the scientific and technological innovation of cotton, innovating the allocation of production factors, accelerating the deep transformation and upgrading of cotton and cotton textile service industry, so as to promote the high-quality development of cotton industry in the basin.

Key words: Cotton; Production and layout; Evolution; Driving factors; Tarim River basin

摘要：

【目的】研究塔里木河流域农业生产结构与布局变迁的动态过程,梳理农业发展脉络和阶段性特征,探究农业生产结构与布局变化的驱动因素。【方法】基于1990~2020 年新疆南疆五地州棉花生产面板数据,采用集中度指标对塔里木河流域棉花生产与布局演变特征进行描述性分析,采用灰色关联度模型对其驱动因素进行定量分析。【结果】塔里木河流域种植业结构调整中,棉花逐渐占据优势地位,对全流域农作物生产规模扩张的贡献率达63.34%;长绒棉生产波动较大,全疆及流域占比呈“双降”趋势;区域布局由以“喀什地区为主、阿克苏地区为辅”逐渐演变为以“阿克苏地区为主、喀什地区为辅,和田地区基本退出”,县域呈集聚化发展;棉花生产受自然条件、要素投入、产业政策、产业链带动、比较效益等多种因素综合影响,其中农用塑料薄膜、化肥、农机、农药等物质投入影响较大。【结论】塔里木河流域作为新疆棉花主要产区,地位日益巩固,未来以持续优化棉花区域布局、强化棉花科技创新、创新配置生产要素、加快棉花和棉纺织服务产业深度转型升级等为重点,助推塔里木河流域棉花产业高质量发展。

关键词: 棉花, 生产与布局, 演变, 驱动因素, 塔里木河流域