Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences ›› 2024, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (S1): 206-216.DOI: 10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2024.S1.032
• Agriculture·Economy·Agricultural and Industrial Information • Previous Articles Next Articles
ZHU Wenbin(), SUN Xu, CHENG Yulan(
)
Received:
2024-07-05
Online:
2024-10-10
Published:
2024-11-15
Correspondence author:
CHENG Yulan
Supported by:
通讯作者:
陈玉兰
作者简介:
朱文斌(2000-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为农业管理,(E-mail)19999433496@163.com
基金资助:
CLC Number:
ZHU Wenbin, SUN Xu, CHENG Yulan. Research on the impact of digital inclusive finance on the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress in China-An empirical study based on 31 interprovincial panel data[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2024, 61(S1): 206-216.
朱文斌, 孙旭, 陈玉兰. 数字普惠金融对我国农业科技进步贡献率的影响[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2024, 61(S1): 206-216.
变量 Variant | 单位 Unit | 均值 Average value | 标准误差 Standard error | 最小值 Minimum values | 最大值 Maximum values | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
被解释变量 Explained variable | 农业科技进步贡献率 (GTAP) | % | 33.694 | 21.380 | 2.714 | 97.079 |
解释变量 Explanatory variable | 数字普惠金融总指数(DIF) | - | 216.235 | 97.030 | 16.220 | 431.927 |
覆盖广度(COV) | - | 196.669 | 96.556 | 1.960 | 397.001 | |
使用深度(DEP) | - | 211.121 | 98.187 | 6.760 | 488.683 | |
数字化程度(DIG) | - | 290.142 | 117.252 | 7.580 | 462.227 | |
控制变量 Control variable | 城镇化率(urb) | % | 58.021 | 13.179 | 22.710 | 89.600 |
固定资产投资(fai) | % | 1.747 | 1.029 | 0.010 | 5.086 | |
农业财政支出(afe) | % | 13.507 | 8.957 | 1.993 | 54.799 | |
产业结构高级化(iss) | - | 2.395 | 0.122 | 2.132 | 2.834 | |
科技创新发展(innov) | 专利数量/万人 | 11.177 | 13.152 | 0.382 | 74.383 |
Tab.1 Descriptive statistics of variables
变量 Variant | 单位 Unit | 均值 Average value | 标准误差 Standard error | 最小值 Minimum values | 最大值 Maximum values | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
被解释变量 Explained variable | 农业科技进步贡献率 (GTAP) | % | 33.694 | 21.380 | 2.714 | 97.079 |
解释变量 Explanatory variable | 数字普惠金融总指数(DIF) | - | 216.235 | 97.030 | 16.220 | 431.927 |
覆盖广度(COV) | - | 196.669 | 96.556 | 1.960 | 397.001 | |
使用深度(DEP) | - | 211.121 | 98.187 | 6.760 | 488.683 | |
数字化程度(DIG) | - | 290.142 | 117.252 | 7.580 | 462.227 | |
控制变量 Control variable | 城镇化率(urb) | % | 58.021 | 13.179 | 22.710 | 89.600 |
固定资产投资(fai) | % | 1.747 | 1.029 | 0.010 | 5.086 | |
农业财政支出(afe) | % | 13.507 | 8.957 | 1.993 | 54.799 | |
产业结构高级化(iss) | - | 2.395 | 0.122 | 2.132 | 2.834 | |
科技创新发展(innov) | 专利数量/万人 | 11.177 | 13.152 | 0.382 | 74.383 |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DIF | 0.135*** | 0.280*** | 0.299*** | 0.296*** | 0.307*** | 0.305*** |
(0.036) | (0.031) | (0.029) | (0.029) | (0.033) | (0.033) | |
urb | 0.777*** | 0.699*** | 0.591*** | 0.492*** | 0.482*** | |
(0.112) | (0.107) | (0.102) | (0.098) | (0.096) | ||
afe | 0.099* | 0.12 | 0.123* | 0.119* | ||
(0.048) | (0.053) | (0.055) | (0.055) | |||
fai | 0.080 | 0.084 | 0.081 | |||
(0.054) | (0.053) | (0.050) | ||||
innov | -0.048 | -0.044 | ||||
(0.027) | (0.026) | |||||
iss | 0.592 | |||||
(0.495) | ||||||
常数项 Constant term | 2.599*** | -1.291* | -1.31 | -0.946* | -0.507 | -0.974 |
0.135*** | 0.280*** | 0.299*** | 0.296*** | 0.307*** | 0.305*** | |
个体固定 Individual fixation | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
时间固定 Fixed time | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
R2 | 0.963 5 | 0.964 9 | 0.965 2 | 0.965 5 | 0.965 5 | 0.965 5 |
F | 13.661 3 | 40.916 6 | 38.424 3 | 32.224 2 | 25.769 4 | 21.047 3 |
N | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 |
Tab.2 Benchmark regression results
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DIF | 0.135*** | 0.280*** | 0.299*** | 0.296*** | 0.307*** | 0.305*** |
(0.036) | (0.031) | (0.029) | (0.029) | (0.033) | (0.033) | |
urb | 0.777*** | 0.699*** | 0.591*** | 0.492*** | 0.482*** | |
(0.112) | (0.107) | (0.102) | (0.098) | (0.096) | ||
afe | 0.099* | 0.12 | 0.123* | 0.119* | ||
(0.048) | (0.053) | (0.055) | (0.055) | |||
fai | 0.080 | 0.084 | 0.081 | |||
(0.054) | (0.053) | (0.050) | ||||
innov | -0.048 | -0.044 | ||||
(0.027) | (0.026) | |||||
iss | 0.592 | |||||
(0.495) | ||||||
常数项 Constant term | 2.599*** | -1.291* | -1.31 | -0.946* | -0.507 | -0.974 |
0.135*** | 0.280*** | 0.299*** | 0.296*** | 0.307*** | 0.305*** | |
个体固定 Individual fixation | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
时间固定 Fixed time | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
R2 | 0.963 5 | 0.964 9 | 0.965 2 | 0.965 5 | 0.965 5 | 0.965 5 |
F | 13.661 3 | 40.916 6 | 38.424 3 | 32.224 2 | 25.769 4 | 21.047 3 |
N | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 |
项目Items | OLS | FE | FE | 2SLS |
---|---|---|---|---|
dif | 0.370***(0.100) | 0.483***(0.109) | ||
L.idf | 0.155***(0.026) | |||
L2.dif | 0.128***(0.023) | |||
控制变量Control variable | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 |
个体固定Individual fixation | YES | YES | YES | YES |
时间固定Fixed time | YES | YES | YES | YES |
Tab.3 Robustness tests
项目Items | OLS | FE | FE | 2SLS |
---|---|---|---|---|
dif | 0.370***(0.100) | 0.483***(0.109) | ||
L.idf | 0.155***(0.026) | |||
L2.dif | 0.128***(0.023) | |||
控制变量Control variable | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 |
个体固定Individual fixation | YES | YES | YES | YES |
时间固定Fixed time | YES | YES | YES | YES |
项目 Items | (1) 覆盖广度 Breadth of coverage | (2) 使用深度 Depth of use | (3) 数字化程度 Degree of digitization |
---|---|---|---|
COV | 0.086*** (0.013) | ||
DEP | 0.255*** (0.027) | ||
DIG | -0.231*** (0.062) | ||
控制变量 Control variable | YES | YES | YES |
双向固定 Bidirectional fixation | YES | YES | YES |
R2 | 0.969 8 | 0.971 3 | 0.971 4 |
常数项 Constant term | 0.536 (0.470) | -0.399 (0.583) | 3.204 (1.718) |
Tab.4 Regression results of different dimensions on the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress
项目 Items | (1) 覆盖广度 Breadth of coverage | (2) 使用深度 Depth of use | (3) 数字化程度 Degree of digitization |
---|---|---|---|
COV | 0.086*** (0.013) | ||
DEP | 0.255*** (0.027) | ||
DIG | -0.231*** (0.062) | ||
控制变量 Control variable | YES | YES | YES |
双向固定 Bidirectional fixation | YES | YES | YES |
R2 | 0.969 8 | 0.971 3 | 0.971 4 |
常数项 Constant term | 0.536 (0.470) | -0.399 (0.583) | 3.204 (1.718) |
项目 Items | 东部 Eastem | 中部 Central section | 西部 Western |
---|---|---|---|
DIF | 0.553*** (0.098) | 0.251** (0.091) | -0.121** (0.049) |
控制变量 Control variable | YES | YES | YES |
双向固定 Bidirectional fixation | YES | YES | YES |
R2 | 0.933 4 | 0.972 1 | 0.964 5 |
常数项 Constant term | -9.199** (2.929) | -9.926** (4.345) | 5.438 (1.046) |
N | 90 | 130 | 90 |
Tab.5 Regression results on the contribution of different regions to scientific and technological progress
项目 Items | 东部 Eastem | 中部 Central section | 西部 Western |
---|---|---|---|
DIF | 0.553*** (0.098) | 0.251** (0.091) | -0.121** (0.049) |
控制变量 Control variable | YES | YES | YES |
双向固定 Bidirectional fixation | YES | YES | YES |
R2 | 0.933 4 | 0.972 1 | 0.964 5 |
常数项 Constant term | -9.199** (2.929) | -9.926** (4.345) | 5.438 (1.046) |
N | 90 | 130 | 90 |
年份 Vintage | 农业科技进步贡献率 (GTAP) | 数字普惠金融 (DIF) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Moran’s I | Z值 | P值 | Moran’s I | Z值 | P值 | |
2011 | 0.381 | 2.859 | 0.004 | 0.639 | 4.450 | 0.000 |
2012 | 0.333 | 2.455 | 0.014 | 0.704 | 4.943 | 0.000 |
2013 | 0.328 | 2.428 | 0.015 | 0.637 | 4.505 | 0.000 |
2014 | 0.333 | 2.447 | 0.014 | 0.614 | 4.352 | 0.000 |
2015 | 0.335 | 2.455 | 0.014 | 0.561 | 4.010 | 0.000 |
2016 | 0.285 | 2.119 | 0.034 | 0.629 | 4.476 | 0.000 |
2017 | 0.290 | 2.149 | 0.032 | 0.624 | 4.450 | 0.000 |
2018 | 0.275 | 2.049 | 0.040 | 0.609 | 4.319 | 0.000 |
2019 | 0.279 | 2.069 | 0.039 | 0.625 | 4.420 | 0.000 |
2020 | 0.247 | 1.870 | 0.061 | 0.639 | 4.505 | 0.000 |
Tab.6 Spatial autocorrelation test
年份 Vintage | 农业科技进步贡献率 (GTAP) | 数字普惠金融 (DIF) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Moran’s I | Z值 | P值 | Moran’s I | Z值 | P值 | |
2011 | 0.381 | 2.859 | 0.004 | 0.639 | 4.450 | 0.000 |
2012 | 0.333 | 2.455 | 0.014 | 0.704 | 4.943 | 0.000 |
2013 | 0.328 | 2.428 | 0.015 | 0.637 | 4.505 | 0.000 |
2014 | 0.333 | 2.447 | 0.014 | 0.614 | 4.352 | 0.000 |
2015 | 0.335 | 2.455 | 0.014 | 0.561 | 4.010 | 0.000 |
2016 | 0.285 | 2.119 | 0.034 | 0.629 | 4.476 | 0.000 |
2017 | 0.290 | 2.149 | 0.032 | 0.624 | 4.450 | 0.000 |
2018 | 0.275 | 2.049 | 0.040 | 0.609 | 4.319 | 0.000 |
2019 | 0.279 | 2.069 | 0.039 | 0.625 | 4.420 | 0.000 |
2020 | 0.247 | 1.870 | 0.061 | 0.639 | 4.505 | 0.000 |
变量 Variant | 空间滞后模型 SAR | 空间误差模型 SEM | 空间杜宾模型 SDM |
---|---|---|---|
DIF | 0.501*** (0.094) | 0.563*** (0.103) | 0.685*** (0.122) |
W*DIF | -0.307** (0.153) | ||
rho | 0.168*** (0.052) | 0.178*** (0.057) | |
lambda | 0.196*** (0.058) | ||
Sigma2_e | 0.022*** (0.002) | 0.022*** (0.002) | 0.019*** (0.002) |
Log-likehood | 150.140 | 150.455 | 165.441 |
R2 | 0.385 2 | 0.432 5 | 0.223 6 |
N | 310 | 310 | 310 |
Tab.7 Robustness test of different models to regression results
变量 Variant | 空间滞后模型 SAR | 空间误差模型 SEM | 空间杜宾模型 SDM |
---|---|---|---|
DIF | 0.501*** (0.094) | 0.563*** (0.103) | 0.685*** (0.122) |
W*DIF | -0.307** (0.153) | ||
rho | 0.168*** (0.052) | 0.178*** (0.057) | |
lambda | 0.196*** (0.058) | ||
Sigma2_e | 0.022*** (0.002) | 0.022*** (0.002) | 0.019*** (0.002) |
Log-likehood | 150.140 | 150.455 | 165.441 |
R2 | 0.385 2 | 0.432 5 | 0.223 6 |
N | 310 | 310 | 310 |
变量 Variant | 总效应 Aggregate effect | 直接效应 Direct effect | 间接效应 Indirect effect |
---|---|---|---|
DIF | 0.444*** (0.115) | 0.675*** (0.117) | -0.231* (0.136) |
Tab.8 Results of spatial spillover effects of digital financial inclusion on the rate of progress in agricultural science
变量 Variant | 总效应 Aggregate effect | 直接效应 Direct effect | 间接效应 Indirect effect |
---|---|---|---|
DIF | 0.444*** (0.115) | 0.675*** (0.117) | -0.231* (0.136) |
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