Abstract:

【Objective】 To study the spatio-temporal pattern change of cotton production in Xinjiang, analyze the characteristics of spatio-temporal change of cotton production and the important causes of its influencing factors. 【Methods】 Based on the panel data of cotton production in Xinjiang from 1991 to 2020, this paper selected cotton regions in Xinjiang as the research object, took Xinjiang regions and major cotton producing counties and cities as the basic research unit, combined time series and space, comprehensively used statistical tools to analyze the cotton planting area, total output and unit output, and analyzed the space-time and regional characteristics of cotton production in Xinjiang, as well as the impact of various factors on cotton production in Xinjiang. 【Results】 The results showed that: (1) The annual changes of cotton planting area and total yield in Xinjiang since 1990 were similar, showing two stages: the period of increasing in fluctuation (1993-2010) and the period of leaping growth (2010-2020). During this period, the cotton areas in northern and southern Xinjiang continued to increase while the cotton areas in eastern Xinjiang decreased, showing a trend of "shrinking in the east, expanding in the south, and increasing in the north" in space. (2) In recent 30 years, the unit cotton yield in Xinjiang has increased significantly, from 0.81 × 10³ kg/hm² increased to 1.85 × 10³ kg/hm², an increase of nearly 1.28 times over the same period, with an average annual increase of 34.66 kg/hm², showing a rapid growth rate, which is the main contributing factor to promote the sustainable growth of cotton output. (3) The change of total cotton output in Xinjiang is generally dominated by the contribution of area, followed by the unit area, and the interaction is the lowest. The dominant production area of cotton in Xinjiang is South Xinjiang. 【Conclusion】 Over the past 30 years, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has continued to increase, the production concentration has continued to increase, the dominant production areas have tended to stabilize, and the unit yield has gradually increased; The cotton production layout shows that the cotton production center has shifted from Kashgar to Aksu.

Key words: cotton; temporal and spatial changes; influence factor

摘要：

【目的】研究新疆棉花生产时空格局变化,分析棉花生产时空变化特征及其影响因素。【方法】选定新疆棉区为研究对象,基于1991~2020年新疆棉花生产的面板数据,以新疆区域及主要产棉市(县)为研究基本单元,采用时间序列与空间相结合,综合运用统计方法分析棉花种植面积、总产量、单产变化,研究新疆棉花生产的时空和区域特征以及各因素对新疆棉花生产的影响。【结果】(1)1990年以来新疆棉花种植面积和总产量年际变化相似,呈现2个阶段:波动中递增时期(1993~2010年),跳跃式增长时期(2010~2020年),期间北疆和南疆棉区持续增加而东疆棉区有所下降趋势,空间上呈现“东减南增北平稳”趋势。(2)近30年新疆棉花单产显著增加,由0.81×10³ kg/hm²增加到2020年1.85×10³ kg/hm²,较同期增加近1.28倍,平均每年增产34.66 kg/hm²,增长速度较快。(3)全疆棉花总产量变化总体上以面积贡献为主,其次单位面积,互作主导为最低,新疆棉花的生产优势产域为南疆。【结论】30年来新疆棉花种植面积持续增加,生产集中程度不断增大,优势产区趋于稳定,单产逐步提升;棉花生产重心呈现出由喀什地区向阿克苏地区转移。

关键词: 棉花, 时空变化, 影响因素