二氧化硫在鲜食葡萄果柄中的积累预测模型

doi:10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2025.07.022

新疆农业科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (7): 1774-1783.DOI: 10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2025.07.022

二氧化硫在鲜食葡萄果柄中的积累预测模型

马彩云¹^,²(), 邢世均²^,³, 袁宇尧²^,³, 张政²^,³, 王曼²^,³, 魏佳²^,³(), 吴斌²^,³()

1.新疆农业大学食品科学与药学学院, 乌鲁木齐 830052
2.新疆农产品加工与保鲜重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830091
3.新疆维吾尔自治区农业科学院农产品加工研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830091

收稿日期:2024-12-11 出版日期:2025-07-20 发布日期:2025-09-05
通信作者: 吴斌(1973-),男,新疆人,研究员,博士,研究方向为农产品贮藏与加工,(E-mail)xjuwubin0320@sina.com;
魏佳(1981-),女,新疆人,副研究员,博士,研究方向为应用化学,(E-mail)jwei_xaas@sina.com
作者简介:马彩云(1994-),女,甘肃人,硕士研究生,研究方向为农产品贮藏与加工,(E-mail)1169399488@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(U2003213);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2023D01B39);新疆维吾尔自治区重大科技专项(2022A02006);新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划(2022B02026);新疆农业科学院农业科技创新稳定支持专项(xjnkywdzc-2023003-2);新疆维吾尔自治区第二批“天池英才”引进计划(青年博士项目)

Prediction model of sulfur dioxide accumulation in fresh grape stalk

MA Caiyun¹^,²(), XING Shijun²^,³, YUAN Yuyao²^,³, ZHANG Zheng²^,³, WANG Man²^,³, WEI Jia²^,³(), WU Bin²^,³()

1. College of Food Sciences and Pharmacy, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
2. Institute of Agricultural Products Processing Research Institute, Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Urumqi 830091, China
3. Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Agricultural Products Processing and Preservation, Urumqi 830091, China

Received:2024-12-11 Published:2025-07-20 Online:2025-09-05
Supported by:
Natural Science Foundation of China(U2003213);Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(2023D01B39);Major S &T Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(2022A02006);Key R & D Program Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(2022B02026);Agricultural S & T Innovation Stability Support Special Project of Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences(xjnkywdzc-2023003-2);He Second Batch of Tianchi Talent Introduction Plan of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Young Doctoral Project)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】分析不同浓度SO₂处理、SO₂积累与果柄生理参数和结构间关系,构建SO₂积累多元线性回归模型,为SO₂在鲜食葡萄中的精准科学的使用提供理论依据。【方法】以火焰无核、夏黑、美人指、无核白、巨峰、红地球、甜蜜蓝宝石、阳光玫瑰、木纳格、克瑞森、紫珍香11种葡萄品种为研究材料,采用不同浓度SO₂处理(100、1 000、5 000和10 000 μL/L),利用相关性和多元线性回归分析方法,探究果柄长、宽、表面积、水分含量、皮孔面积与果柄中SO₂积累量间的关系。【结果】水分含量和皮孔面积与果柄中SO₂积累成正相关。用熏蒸浓度(X₁)、水分含量(X₂)、皮孔面积(X₃)构建预测果柄中SO₂积累的多元线性回归方程。得到积累预测模型Y= 0.31X₁ + 1 214.08X₂+ 1 261.34X₃- 1040.50。回归方程的决定系数(R²)为0.962,显著性F检验对应P为0,自变量对因变量有极限著影响(P<0.01)。该方程符合正态分布,且具有较高的拟合度,经验证发现,模型预测值与实际值平均相对误差为0.04%,误差较低。【结论】采用多元线性回归模型预测果柄中含水量与SO₂的积累预测结构较准确,误差较低,有较高可行性。

关键词: 葡萄; 线性回归; 模型预测

Abstract:

【Objective】 Thus laying a theoretical foundation for the accumulation of SO₂ in grapes based on linear regression analysis. 【Methods】 Eleven grapes, including Flame Seedless, Summer Black, Manicure Finger, Thompson Seedless, Kyoho, Red Globe, Sweet Sapphire, Sunnny Rose, Munage, Crimson, Zizhenxiang, were studied by using correlation and multiple linear regression analysis methods to explore the relationship between stem length, width, surface area, water content, skin hole area and SO₂ accumulation in fruit stalks. 【Results】 The Pearson correlation showed that water content and skin hole area were positively correlated with SO₂ accumulation in fruit stalks. The multiple linear regression equation for predicting SO₂ accumulation in fruit stem was constructed by fumigation concentration (X₁), moisture content (X₂) and skin hole area (X₃). The cumulative prediction model Y= 0.31X₁ + 1,214.08X₂ + 1,261.34X₃-1,040.50 was obtained. The coefficient of determination (R²) of the regression equation was 0.962, The F test of significance corresponds to a P of 0, and the independent variable had a limiting influence on the dependent variable (P < 0.01). The results of regression standardized residual analysis showed that the equation conformed to normal distribution and had a high degree of fit. The average relative error between the predicted value and the actual value of the model was 0.04%, which was a low error. 【Conclusion】 The prediction structure of water content and SO₂ accumulation in fruit stem by using multiple linear regression model is more accurate, the error is lower, and it has high feasibility.

Key words: grape; linear regression; model prediction

中图分类号:

S663.1

马彩云, 邢世均, 袁宇尧, 张政, 王曼, 魏佳, 吴斌. 二氧化硫在鲜食葡萄果柄中的积累预测模型[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2025, 62(7): 1774-1783.

MA Caiyun, XING Shijun, YUAN Yuyao, ZHANG Zheng, WANG Man, WEI Jia, WU Bin. Prediction model of sulfur dioxide accumulation in fresh grape stalk[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2025, 62(7): 1774-1783.

图/表 11

参考文献 24

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品种 Varieties	树龄 Tree- age(a)	采样时间 Sample time Year/Month/Day	采样地点 Sampling location
火焰无核 Flame Seedless	7	2023/8/18	昌吉市呼图壁县
夏黑 Summer Black	7	2023/8/22	乌鲁木齐市头屯河区
美人指 Manicure Figer	7	2023/8/23	乌鲁木齐市头屯河区
无核白 Thompson seedless	7	2023/8/24	吐鲁番市高昌区
巨峰 Kyoho	7	2023/8/26	乌鲁木齐市头屯河区
红地球 Red Globe	7	2023/9/3	乌鲁木齐市头屯河区
蓝宝石 Sweet Sapphire	7	2023/9/20	博乐市八十一团
阳光玫瑰 Sunny Rose	6	2023/9/25	乌鲁木市齐头屯河区
木纳格 Munage	7	2023/9/28	喀什市阿图什县
克瑞森 Crimson Seedless	7	2023/10/1	石河子市一五二团
紫珍香 Zizhenxiang	7	2023/10/2	石河子市一五二团

品种 Varieties	树龄 Tree- age(a)	采样时间 Sample time Year/Month/Day	采样地点 Sampling location
火焰无核 Flame Seedless	7	2023/8/18	昌吉市呼图壁县
夏黑 Summer Black	7	2023/8/22	乌鲁木齐市头屯河区
美人指 Manicure Figer	7	2023/8/23	乌鲁木齐市头屯河区
无核白 Thompson seedless	7	2023/8/24	吐鲁番市高昌区
巨峰 Kyoho	7	2023/8/26	乌鲁木齐市头屯河区
红地球 Red Globe	7	2023/9/3	乌鲁木齐市头屯河区
蓝宝石 Sweet Sapphire	7	2023/9/20	博乐市八十一团
阳光玫瑰 Sunny Rose	6	2023/9/25	乌鲁木市齐头屯河区
木纳格 Munage	7	2023/9/28	喀什市阿图什县
克瑞森 Crimson Seedless	7	2023/10/1	石河子市一五二团
紫珍香 Zizhenxiang	7	2023/10/2	石河子市一五二团

品种 Varieties	长 Length (mm)	宽 Width (mm)	果柄表面积 Area (mm²)	皮孔面积 lenticel area (%)	果柄水分含量 stem moisture content(%)
火焰无核Flame Seedless	5.37±0.14^e	1.04±0.16^e	17.57±3.14^e	1.15±0.05^a	78.00±0.76^a
夏黑Summer Black	8.27±0.29^bc	2.28±0.29^bc	59.07±5.45^c	0.27±0.09^d	72.50±0.81
美人指Manicure Figer	8.44±0.46^bc	2.26±0.19^bc	59.79±3.53^b	0.41±0.05^cd	77.19±0.62^a
无核白Thompson seedless	6.40±0.24^d	3.93±0.36^a	78.91±6.97^a	0.58±0.03^bc	62.52±1.40^d
巨峰Kyoho	7.93±0.77^c	2.07±0.11^c	51.47±4.66^d	1.22±0.11^a	77.18±0.54^a
红地球Red Globe	7.71±0.27^c	2.52±0.28^b	61.11±8.l7^b	0.64±0.06^b	71.84±0.49^b
蓝宝石Sweet Sapphire	8.94±0.18^b	2.54±0.62^b	71.25±17.37^a	0.27±0.03^d	71.19±0.60^b
阳光玫瑰Shine Musca	8.53±0.27^bc	2.5±0.23^b	66.97±7.78^a	0.37±0.02^cd	67.72±0.46^c
木纳格Munage	11.54±0.53^a	1.99±0.2^bc	72.40±10.69^a	1.03±0.13^a	70.94±0.18^b
克瑞森Crimson Seedless	7.98±0.29^c	1.79±0.17^cd	44.56±2.77^d	0.36±0.05^cd	70.83±0.36^b
紫珍香Zizhenxiang	11.61±0.79^a	1.39±0.17d^e	50.81±9.41^d	0.21±0.02^d	60.31±0.11^e

品种 Varieties	长 Length (mm)	宽 Width (mm)	果柄表面积 Area (mm²)	皮孔面积 lenticel area (%)	果柄水分含量 stem moisture content(%)
火焰无核Flame Seedless	5.37±0.14^e	1.04±0.16^e	17.57±3.14^e	1.15±0.05^a	78.00±0.76^a
夏黑Summer Black	8.27±0.29^bc	2.28±0.29^bc	59.07±5.45^c	0.27±0.09^d	72.50±0.81
美人指Manicure Figer	8.44±0.46^bc	2.26±0.19^bc	59.79±3.53^b	0.41±0.05^cd	77.19±0.62^a
无核白Thompson seedless	6.40±0.24^d	3.93±0.36^a	78.91±6.97^a	0.58±0.03^bc	62.52±1.40^d
巨峰Kyoho	7.93±0.77^c	2.07±0.11^c	51.47±4.66^d	1.22±0.11^a	77.18±0.54^a
红地球Red Globe	7.71±0.27^c	2.52±0.28^b	61.11±8.l7^b	0.64±0.06^b	71.84±0.49^b
蓝宝石Sweet Sapphire	8.94±0.18^b	2.54±0.62^b	71.25±17.37^a	0.27±0.03^d	71.19±0.60^b
阳光玫瑰Shine Musca	8.53±0.27^bc	2.5±0.23^b	66.97±7.78^a	0.37±0.02^cd	67.72±0.46^c
木纳格Munage	11.54±0.53^a	1.99±0.2^bc	72.40±10.69^a	1.03±0.13^a	70.94±0.18^b
克瑞森Crimson Seedless	7.98±0.29^c	1.79±0.17^cd	44.56±2.77^d	0.36±0.05^cd	70.83±0.36^b
紫珍香Zizhenxiang	11.61±0.79^a	1.39±0.17d^e	50.81±9.41^d	0.21±0.02^d	60.31±0.11^e

品种 Varieties	熏蒸浓度(μL/L) Fumigation concentration
品种 Varieties	100	1 000	5 000	10 000
火焰无核Flame Seedless	24.00±1.73^b	225.00±8.32^a	2 320.33±54.56^a	3 360.00±10.39^b
夏黑Summer Black	16.00±1.33^e	144.33±2.02^f	1 868.33±6.64^d	2 696.00±16.16^de
美人指Manicure Figer	19.30±0.36^d	144.33±2.02^g	1 916.00±2.31^d	2 664.33±6.06^cd
无核白Thompson seedless	23.43±1.30^c	200.00±6.30^b	2 074.00±12.70^bc	3 537.00±1.73^b
巨峰Kyoho	13.80±0.23^de	131.16±3.29^d	1 855.67±17.61^d	2 832.00±15.58^e
红地球Red Globe	17.05±0.73^a	141.40±2.42^g	2 000.00±8.66^c	3 359.66±14.72^de
蓝宝石Sweet Sapphire	15.33±1.45^e	112.40±0.40^e	1 758.00±7.50^e	2 840.00±11.55^de
阳光玫瑰Sunny Rose	21.33±2.02^f	89.66±2.48^g	1 340.00±18.52^g	3 376.33±10.68^bc
木纳格Munage	46.33±1.45^d	275.33±13.64^c	2 148.33±62.20^b	3 458.33±115.18^a
克瑞森Crimson Seedless	18.33±1.45^f	78.93±2.87^g	1 458.33±2.03^f	2 880.00±13.85^cd
紫珍香Zizhenxiang	15.33±0.88^f	81.60±1.67^g	1 296.00±32.92^g	2 240.00±12.70^de

二氧化硫在鲜食葡萄果柄中的积累预测模型

Prediction model of sulfur dioxide accumulation in fresh grape stalk

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参考文献 24

相关文章 15

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Metrics

指标 Indexes	标准错误 Standard error		标准化系数 Standardized coefficient	t	显著性 Significance	共线性检测 Collinearity dctection
指标 Indexes	B	标准错误 Standard error	β	t	显著性 Significance	容差 Tolerance	VIF
常量Constant	-1 040.504	528.191		-1.9.70	0.056
熏蒸浓度 Fumigation concentration	0.314	0.010	0.975	31.612	<0.001	1.000	1.000
水分含量 Moisture content	1 214.820	749.204	0.51	1.621	0.113	0.966	1.036
皮孔面积 Pithole area	1 261.336	494.120	0.80	2.553	0.015	0.966	1.036

来源 Source	平方和	自由度	均方 Mean square	F	P
回归Return	66 948 779.47	3	22 316 259.82	336.785	0.000^b
残差Residual	26 650 506.338	40	66 262.658
总计Total	69 599 285.80	43	**		***

指标 Index	最大值 Maximum	最小值 Minimum	平均值 Average value	变异系数 Coefficient	观测值 Observations
模型预测值 Model predicted value	3 363.93	42.54	1 637.73	0.73	35
实际预测值 Actual predicted value	3 360.00	24.00	1 602.10	0.77
模型预测值与实际预测值的绝对误差 Absdute error between model predic ted value and actual predicted value of variation	3.34	18.00	35.63
模型预测值与实际预测值的相对误差 Relative error between the model predicted value and the actual predicted	0.00	0.75	0.02

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