环渤海五省市番茄市场横向整合与纵向整合分析

doi:10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2022.12.027

新疆农业科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (12): 3112-3120.DOI: 10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2022.12.027

• 作物遗传育种·耕作栽培·种质资源 • 上一篇

环渤海五省市番茄市场横向整合与纵向整合分析

于丽艳¹, 穆月英²(), 丁建国³

1.天津科技大学经济与管理学院,天津 300222
2.中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京 100083
3.新疆农业科学院农业经济与科技信息研究所,乌鲁木齐 830091

收稿日期:2022-02-10 出版日期:2022-12-20 发布日期:2023-01-30
通信作者: 穆月英(1963-),女,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为农业经济理论与政策,(E-mail)yueyingmu@cau.edu.cn
作者简介:于丽艳(1977-),女,博士研究生,副教授,研究方向为农业经济理论与政策,(E-mail)
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71773121);国家社科基金重大项目(18ZDA074);现代农业产业技术体系北京市产业经济与政策创新团队(BAIC11-2022);天津科技大学青年教师创新基金(2015ZD01)

Research on Horizontal Integration and Vertical Integration of Tomato Market of Five Provinces and Cities in the Bohai Sea Rim

YU Liyan¹, MU Yueying²(), DING Jianguo³

1. College of Economics and Management, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin 300222, China
2. College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
3. Institute of Agricultural Economics and Scientific Technical Information, Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Urumqi 830091, China

Received:2022-02-10 Published:2022-12-20 Online:2023-01-30
Correspondence author: MU Yueying(1963-),female, native place: Datong, Shanxi. Professor, DAG; research field: Agricultural economic theory and policy, (E-mail) yueyingmu@cau.edu.cn
Supported by:
The National Natural Science Foundation of China(71773121);Key Program of NationalSocial Science Foundation of China(18ZDA074);Modlem Agricultural Industry Technology System of Beijing Industry Economy and Policy Imnovation'Team(BAIC11-2022);Youth Teacher Innovation Foundation Project of 'Tianjin University of Science and Technology(2015ZD01)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】 研究环渤海地区五省市番茄市场横向整合和纵向整合,反映区域之间番茄价格传导的效率,为番茄跨区域市场整合提供参考。【方法】 以环渤海地区五省市番茄批发价格和零售价格为研究对象,利用协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验,研究环渤海地区五省市番茄市场横向整合和纵向整合。【结果】 除了天津市-辽宁省、河北省-山东省、辽宁省-山东省番茄批发价格组合不存在协整关系外,其他省区之间番茄批发价的两两组合都存在协整关系;在存在协整关系的组合中,当番茄批发价格受到冲击偏离长期均衡状态时,横向市场间的误差修正机制可以消除主销区这种价格偏离,北京市消除这种偏离水平需要10.5~16.7 d,天津市消除这种偏离水平需要13.0~13.5 d;除辽宁省外,其他主产区这种修正机制不显著。北京市番茄零售价格分别与天津市、河北省、山东省番茄批发价格存在协整关系,当北京市番茄零售价格受到冲击偏离长期均衡状态时,纵向市场间的误差修正机制可以消除番茄零售价格的偏离,北京市消除番茄零售价格偏离水平需要26.3~40 d,除了天津市外,其他2个省区这种修正机制不显著。【结论】 五省市批发价格传导总体顺畅,能够实现番茄价格的整体均衡与联动,番茄市场横向整合程度较高;在跨区域的番茄批发价格与零售价格传导过程中,批发价格在价格传导中处于主导地位,五省市番茄市场纵向整合程度较高。

关键词: 番茄; 市场横向整合; 市场纵向整合; 协整分析; 误差修正模型

Abstract:

【Objective】 Through the research on the horizontal and vertical integration of tomato markets in the five provinces and cities, this paper aims to reflect the efficiency of tomato price transmission between regions and provides a reference for the integration of tomato markets across regions.【Methods】 Using the wholesale price and retail price of tomato from January 1, 2018 to April 15, 2019 in five provinces and cities in the Bohai Rim region, and using co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, this paper studied the horizontal integration and vertical integration of the tomato market in five provinces and cities in the Bohai Rim region.【Results】 Except the combination of Tianjin -Liaoning, Hebei -Shandong, Liaoning -Shandong, there is no co-integration relationship between the tomato wholesale price combinations, and the pair of tomato wholesale price combinations between other provinces or cities had a certain co-integration relationship; In a combination with a co-integration relationship, when tomato wholesale prices were impacted and deviated from the long-term equilibrium state, the error correction mechanism between horizontal markets could eliminate this price deviation in the main sales area. It took 10.5 days to 16.7 for Beijing to eliminate this deviation. And, it took 13.0 days to 13.5 days for Tianjin to eliminate this deviation level; except Liaoning Province, this correction mechanism was not significant in other major producing areas. There was a co-integration relationship between the retail price of tomato in Beijing and the wholesale price of tomatoes in Tianjin, Hebei, and Shandong. When the retail price of tomato in Beijing was impacted and deviated from the long-term equilibrium, the error correction mechanism between vertical markets could eliminate the price deviation. It took about from 26.3 days to 40 days for Beijing to eliminate the deviation of tomato retail prices. Except Tianjin, this correction mechanism was not significant in the other two provinces.【Conclusion】 The wholesale price of tomato is smooth, so the overall balance and linkage of tomato prices can be achieved and the horizontal integration of the tomato market is relatively high. In the process of tomato wholesale price and retail price transmission, wholesale prices are dominant in price transmission. To sum up, the vertical integration of the tomato market in the five provinces and cities is relatively high.

Key words: tomato; horizontal integration of market; vertical integration of market; co-integration analysis; error correction model

中图分类号:

F323.3
S-1

于丽艳, 穆月英, 丁建国. 环渤海五省市番茄市场横向整合与纵向整合分析[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2022, 59(12): 3112-3120.

YU Liyan, MU Yueying, DING Jianguo. Research on Horizontal Integration and Vertical Integration of Tomato Market of Five Provinces and Cities in the Bohai Sea Rim[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2022, 59(12): 3112-3120.

图/表 9

参考文献 17

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Variables	Obs	Mean	Std.Dev.	Min	Max	Skew.	Kurt.
北京番茄批发价 Beijing	464	2.04	0.585	1.1	3.675	0.438	2.202
天津番茄批发价 Tianjin	464	2.426	0.801	1.125	4.3	0.37	1.915
河北番茄批发价 Hebei	464	1.897	0.768	0.725	3.5	0.337	1.785
辽宁番茄批发价 Liaoning	464	2.302	0.696	1.238	4.125	0.508	2.457
山东番茄批发价 Shandong	464	2.023	0.738	0.8	3.625	0.537	2.183
北京超市番茄零售价格 Beijing Supermarket	464	3.979	1.097	2.46	6.39	0.448	1.865

Variables	Obs	Mean	Std.Dev.	Min	Max	Skew.	Kurt.
北京番茄批发价 Beijing	464	2.04	0.585	1.1	3.675	0.438	2.202
天津番茄批发价 Tianjin	464	2.426	0.801	1.125	4.3	0.37	1.915
河北番茄批发价 Hebei	464	1.897	0.768	0.725	3.5	0.337	1.785
辽宁番茄批发价 Liaoning	464	2.302	0.696	1.238	4.125	0.508	2.457
山东番茄批发价 Shandong	464	2.023	0.738	0.8	3.625	0.537	2.183
北京超市番茄零售价格 Beijing Supermarket	464	3.979	1.097	2.46	6.39	0.448	1.865

变量名称 Variable	ADF统计量 ADF statistics	P值 P-value	结论 Conclusion	变量名称 Variable	ADF统计量 ADF statistics	结论 Conclusion
fqbj	-2.274	0.1805	不平稳	△fqbj	-21.357	平稳
fqtj	-1.645	0.4599	不平稳	△fqtj	-21.796	平稳
fqhb	-1.278	0.6391	不平稳	△fqhb	-23.353	平稳
fqln	-1.669	0.4473	不平稳	△fqln	-21.796	平稳
fqshd	-1.003	0.7523	不平稳	△fqln	-19.263	平稳
bjchshf	-0.173	0.9416	不平稳	△bjchshf	-19.263	平稳

变量名称 Variable	ADF统计量 ADF statistics	P值 P-value	结论 Conclusion	变量名称 Variable	ADF统计量 ADF statistics	结论 Conclusion
fqbj	-2.274	0.1805	不平稳	△fqbj	-21.357	平稳
fqtj	-1.645	0.4599	不平稳	△fqtj	-21.796	平稳
fqhb	-1.278	0.6391	不平稳	△fqhb	-23.353	平稳
fqln	-1.669	0.4473	不平稳	△fqln	-21.796	平稳
fqshd	-1.003	0.7523	不平稳	△fqln	-19.263	平稳
bjchshf	-0.173	0.9416	不平稳	△bjchshf	-19.263	平稳

地区 Region	协整秩 Cointegration rank H0	特征值 Eigenvalue	迹统计量Trace statistic		最大特征值统计量Max statistic
地区 Region	协整秩 Cointegration rank H0	特征值 Eigenvalue	统计量 Statistic	5%临界值 5% critical value	统计量 Statistic	5%临界值 5% critical value
北京-天津 Beijng-Tianjin	r=0	—	35.061	15.41	31.887	14.07
北京-天津 Beijng-Tianjin	r≤1	0.067	3.175^*	3.76	3.175	3.76
北京-河北 Beijing-Hebei	r=0	—	32.268	15.41	31.130	14.07
北京-河北 Beijing-Hebei	r≤1	0.065	1.137^*	3.76	1.137	3.76
北京-辽宁 Beijing-Liaoning	r=0	—	30.336	15.41	28.049	14.07
北京-辽宁 Beijing-Liaoning	r≤1	0.059	2.287^*	3.76	2.287	3.76
北京-山东 Beijing-Shandong	r=0	—	32.187	15.41	30.843	14.07
北京-山东 Beijing-Shandong	r≤1	0.065	1.344^*	3.76	1.344	3.76
天津-河北 Tianjn-Hebei	r=0	—	33.99	15.41	32.692	14.07
天津-河北 Tianjn-Hebei	r≤1	0.068	1.2954^*	3.76	1.295	3.76
天津-辽宁 Tianjn-Liaoning	r=0	—	4.331^*	15.41	12.497	14.07
天津-辽宁 Tianjn-Liaoning	r≤1	0.027	1.833	3.76	1.833	3.76
天津-山东 Tianjn-Shandong	r=0	—	29.637	15.41	28.445	14.07
天津-山东 Tianjn-Shandong	r≤1	0.060	1.193^*	3.76	1.193	3.76
辽宁-河北 Liaoning-Hebei	r=0	—	17.872	15.41	16.895	14.07
辽宁-河北 Liaoning-Hebei	r≤1	0.036	0.977^*	3.76	0.977	3.76
河北、山东 Hebei-Shandong	r=0	—	12.384^*	15.41	11.402	14.07
河北、山东 Hebei-Shandong	r≤1	0.024	0.982	3.76	0.982	3.76
辽宁-山东 Liaoning-Shandong	r=0	—	14.276^*	15.41	13.050	14.07
辽宁-山东 Liaoning-Shandong	r≤1	0.028	1.226	3.76	1.226	3.76

环渤海五省市番茄市场横向整合与纵向整合分析

Research on Horizontal Integration and Vertical Integration of Tomato Market of Five Provinces and Cities in the Bohai Sea Rim

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图/表 9

参考文献 17

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Metrics

地区A RegionA	地区B RegionB	协整系数 Cointegration coefficient	误差调整系数 Error adjustment coefficient
地区A RegionA	地区B RegionB	协整系数 Cointegration coefficient	地区A RegionA	地区B RegionB
北京 Beijing	天津 Tianjin	0.791^*** (0.090)	-0.044^*** (0.017)	0.062^*** (0.016)
北京 Beijing	河北 Hebei	0.623^*** (0.059)	-0.095^*** (0.020)	0.020 (0.022)
北京 Beijing	辽宁 Liaoning	0.905^*** (0.105)	-0.060^*** (0.017)	0.042^*** (0.015)
北京 Beijing	山东 Shandong	0.693^*** (0.074)	-0.088^*** (0.021)	0.018 (0.015)
天津 Tianjin	河北 Hebei	0.769^*** (0.072)	-0.074^*** (0.016)	0.019 (0.019)
天津 Tianjin	山东 Shandong	0.922^*** (0.077)	-0.077^*** (0.017)	0.024 (0.023)
辽宁 Liaoning	河北 Hebei	0.652^*** (0.101)	-0.044^*** (0.013)	0.024 (0.017)

原假设 Null hypothesis	chi2 chi2	Df Df	P值 P-value	结论 conclusion
北京零售价格不是天津批发价格的格兰杰原因 The retail price in Beijing is not the Granger reasonof the wholesale price in Tianjin	8.253	4	0.083	拒绝原假设√
天津批发价格不是北京零售价格的格兰杰原因 The wholesale price in Tianjin is not the Granger reasonof the retail price in Beijing	8.550	4	0.073	拒绝原假设√
北京零售价格不是河北批发价格的格兰杰原因 The retail price in Beijing is not the Granger reasonof the wholesale price in hebei	3.515	5	0.621	接受原假设 Accept
河北批发价格不是北京零售价格的格兰杰原因 The wholesale price in hebei is not the Granger reasonof the retail price in Beijing	18.499	5	0.002	拒绝原假设√
北京零售价格不是辽宁批发价格的格兰杰原因 The retail price in Beijing is not the Granger reasonof the wholesale price in Liaoning	9.980	7	0.190	接受原假设 Accept
辽宁批发价格不是北京零售价格的格兰杰原因 The wholesale price in Liaoning is not the Granger reasonof the retail price in Beijing	13.665	7	0.057	拒绝原假设√
北京零售价格不是山东批发价格的格兰杰原因 The retail price in Beijing is not the Granger reasonof the wholesale price in Shandong	6.463	7	0.487	接受原假设 Accept
山东批发价格不是北京零售价格的格兰杰原因 The wholesale price in Shandong is not the Granger reasonof the retail price in Beijing	20.914	7	0.004	拒绝原假设√

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