Abstract:

【Objective】 Study Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Variability of Wheat Production and Factors Affecting Yield Improvement in Xinjiang In-depth grasp of the pulse of wheat production in Xinjiang, to provide a scientific basis for rational planning of planting areas, optimize the allocation of resources. 【Methods】 Based on the research results in Kashgar, the spatial evolution pattern of wheat production in Xinjiang and the influencing factors of wheat yield were analyzed by using the center of gravity analysis method and the fixed effect regression model. 【Results】 Wheat yields in Xinjiang increased from 350.65 kg/667m² in 2005 to 400.6 kg/667m² in 2024, with significant technology-driven features but obvious regional differences.Econometric results show that climatic factors such as temperature and sunshine duration, together with the expansion of production scale and total mechanical power, are the core drivers of yield improvement. 【Conclusion】 In order to increase wheat yield in Xinjiang, we need to rely on the system of “climate-adapted varieties + mechanized operation + highly efficient water-saving irrigation”, and focus on breaking through the bottleneck of water resource constraints in the south and labor loss in the north, so as to provide theoretical support for regional food security.

Key words: wheat; spatial and temporal variability; yield increase

摘要：

【目的】 分析新疆小麦生产的时空变迁特征及单产提升影响因素,深入把握新疆小麦生产脉络,为合理规划种植区域、优化资源配置提供科学依据。【方法】 基于新疆喀什地区的调研结果,采用重心分析法以及固定效应回归模型,分析新疆小麦生产的空间演变格局以及小麦单产的影响因素。【结果】 新疆小麦单产从2005年的350.65 kg/667m²提升至2024年的400.6 kg/667m²,技术驱动特征显著,但区域差异明显。温度、日照时长等气候因子与生产规模扩张和机械总动力是单产提升的核心驱动力。【结论】 新疆小麦增产需依托“气候适应性品种+机械化作业+高效节水灌溉”体系,重点突破新疆南疆水资源约束与北疆劳动力流失瓶颈。

关键词: 小麦, 时空变迁, 单产提升