Change and Prediction of the Land Use in Shihezi Reclamation Area Based on CA-Markov Model

doi:10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2022.10.028

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】 To explore the spatio-temporal evolution law of land use and driving mechanism in the process of artificialization oasis in Shihezi Reclamation Area,【Methods】 Based on the data of TM images in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, the distribution land use pattern in THE past 30 years was analyzed by RS and GIS, the CA-Markov model and the land use gravity center model were used to simulate and predict the land use/cover pattern in 2030 and 2040.【Results】 (1) From 1990 to 2020, the land use/cover pattern of Shihezi Reclamation Area was dominated by unused land, the main change trends were the expansion of farmland and building, and the decrease of forest and grassland; (2) The center of gravity of forest has migrated most significantly, moving from north to south by 0.6°, farmland had the most dynamic changes, with an average annual increase of 2.72% during the past 30 years, followed by forest land;(3) The Kappa coefficient were both higher than 80.36%.【Conclusion】 Indicating that the model had high reliability and was suitable for the prediction of land use/cover change and spatial pattern in Shihezi Reclamation Area. The simulation showed the farmland and building would continue to increase.

Key words: land use/cover; CA-Markov model; simulation and forecast

摘要：

【目的】研究新疆石河子垦区绿洲人工化进程中土地利用时空演变规律以及驱动机制。【方法】以1990年、2000年、2010年和2020年的TM/ETM影像为基础数据,运用RS和GIS技术分析近30年垦区土地利用时空变化特征,利用CA-Markov模型和土地利用重心迁移模型,模拟预测2030年和2040年研究区的土地利用/覆被格局。【结果】(1)1990-2020年石河子垦区土地利用/覆被格局以未利用地为主,占总面积的41.18%以上,呈小幅波动变化状态;(2) 林地的重心迁移最显著,由北向南迁移了0.6°,耕地动态度变化最活跃,30年间平均每年增加2.72%,林地次之;(3) Kappa系数的一致性检验结果均高于80.36%。【结论】CA-Markov模型可信度较高,适合石河子垦区土地利用/覆被变化及空间格局预测。

关键词: 土地利用/覆被, CA-Markov 模型, 模拟和预测

CLC Number:

LI Changxiao, FAN Wenbo, ZHANG Jianxin, QIAO Changlu, YANG Haimei, WANG Yaqin. Change and Prediction of the Land Use in Shihezi Reclamation Area Based on CA-Markov Model[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2022, 59(10): 2585-2594.

李长晓, 范文波, 张建新, 乔长录, 杨海梅, 王雅琴. 基于CA-Markov模型的石河子垦区土地利用变化及预测[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2022, 59(10): 2585-2594.

Figures/Tables 11

References 26

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土地利用/ 覆被类型 Land use/ cover type	1990		2000		2010		2020
土地利用/ 覆被类型 Land use/ cover type	面积 Area (km²)	百分比 Percentage (%)	面积 Area (km²)	百分比 Percentage (%)	面积 Area (km²)	百分比 Percentage (%)	面积 Area (km²)	百分比 Percentage (%)
耕地Farmland	4 305.64								12.64	4 504.70	13.23	7 315.21	21.48	7 818.30	22.96
林地Forest	1 300.61								3.82	1 265.23	3.72	496.79	1.46	454.44	1.33
草地Grassland	12 045.48								35.37	11 379.79	33.42	10 130.22	29.75	9 656.89	28.36
水域Water	2 101.91								6.17	2 123.75	6.24	936.41	2.75	996.07	2.93
建设用地Built	274.41								0.81	322.29	0.95	442.38	1.30	514.29	1.51
未利用地 Unused land	14 023.21								41.18	14 455.34	42.45	14 730.36	43.26	14 611.37	42.91

土地利用/ 覆被类型 Land use/ cover type	1990		2000		2010		2020
土地利用/ 覆被类型 Land use/ cover type	面积 Area (km²)	百分比 Percentage (%)	面积 Area (km²)	百分比 Percentage (%)	面积 Area (km²)	百分比 Percentage (%)	面积 Area (km²)	百分比 Percentage (%)
耕地Farmland	4 305.64								12.64	4 504.70	13.23	7 315.21	21.48	7 818.30	22.96
林地Forest	1 300.61								3.82	1 265.23	3.72	496.79	1.46	454.44	1.33
草地Grassland	12 045.48								35.37	11 379.79	33.42	10 130.22	29.75	9 656.89	28.36
水域Water	2 101.91								6.17	2 123.75	6.24	936.41	2.75	996.07	2.93
建设用地Built	274.41								0.81	322.29	0.95	442.38	1.30	514.29	1.51
未利用地 Unused land	14 023.21								41.18	14 455.34	42.45	14 730.36	43.26	14 611.37	42.91

土地利用/覆被类型 Land use/ cover type	耕地 Farmland	林地 Forest	草地 Grassland	水域 Water	建设用地 Built	未利用地 Unused land
耕地Farmland	89.98	0.30	3.85	0.35	5.18	0.34
林地Forest	23.74	20.76	48.96	0.94	0.98	4.62
草地Grassland	22.12	1.25	66.01	0.87	0.85	8.90
水域Water	0.28	0.00	6.86	32.72	0.18	59.96
建设用地Built	43.98	0.00	5.16	0.38	50.48	0.00
未利用地Unused land	6.40	0.05	5.25	1.33	0.26	86.70

土地利用/覆被类型 Land use/ cover type	耕地 Farmland	林地 Forest	草地 Grassland	水域 Water	建设用地 Built	未利用地 Unused land
耕地Farmland	89.98	0.30	3.85	0.35	5.18	0.34
林地Forest	23.74	20.76	48.96	0.94	0.98	4.62
草地Grassland	22.12	1.25	66.01	0.87	0.85	8.90
水域Water	0.28	0.00	6.86	32.72	0.18	59.96
建设用地Built	43.98	0.00	5.16	0.38	50.48	0.00
未利用地Unused land	6.40	0.05	5.25	1.33	0.26	86.70

时段 Time	类型 Type	耕地 Farmland (km²)	林地 Forest (km²)	草地 Grassland (km²)	水域 Water (km²)	建设用地 Built (km²)	未利用地 Unused land (km²)	转出 Transfor out (km²)	净转出 Net transfor out (km²)
1990 ~ 2000	耕地	3 850.53	12.92	216.14	8.18	81.38	136.49	455.11	-175.27
	林地	34.60	1 197.48	55.28	3.77	0.00	9.62	103.27	47.67
	草地	481.82	42.16	11 066.18	21.68	14.45	420.39	980.50	650.09
	水域	0.63	0.00	9.25	2 082.36	0.63	9.25	19.76	-27.90
	建设用地	32.00	0.52	10.48	0.00	231.38	0.00	43.00	-53.46
	未利用地	81.33	0.00	39.26	14.02	0.00	13 888.59	134.62	-441.13
	转入	630.38	55.60	330.41	47.66	96.46	575.75		0.00
2000 ~ 2010	耕地	4 173.15	14.42	172.98	11.26	115.77	16.67	331.10	-2 845.65
	林地	233.44	280.63	664.25	14.55	10.75	61.74	984.73	779.78
	草地	1 890.18	177.52	8 152.48	106.97	66.00	985.49	3 226.17	1 226.63
	水域	8.07	0.00	150.36	700.84	3.19	1 261.29	1 422.91	1 176.86
	建设用地	127.14	0.00	14.54	0.52	179.58	0.52	142.71	-106.49
	未利用地	917.91	13.01	997.42	112.75	53.48	12 360.76	2 094.58	-231.13
	转入	3 176.74	204.95	1 999.54	246.05	249.20	2 325.71		-0.00
2010 ~ 2020	耕地	7 048.94	1.46	152.89	7.32	87.78	16.82	266.27	-538.57
	林地	10.93	394.50	90.27	0.00	0.00	1.09	102.29	45.56
	草地	661.50	54.70	9 298.53	18.23	28.36	68.89	831.69	502.00
	水域	13.30	0.56	23.97	847.64	4.21	46.82	88.87	-60.66
	建设用地	27.78	0.00	2.17	22.34	389.52	0.53	52.82	-83.74
	未利用地	91.33	0.00	60.39	101.64	16.20	14 460.80	269.57	135.41
	转入	804.84	56.73	329.69	149.53	136.56	134.15		-0.00