Construction and application of dynamic models for predicting shelf life of different varieties of walnut nuts

doi:10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2025.06.019

Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences ›› 2025, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (6): 1469-1477.DOI: 10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2025.06.019

• Horticultural Special Local Products·Agricultural Product Processing Engineering • Previous Articles Next Articles

Construction and application of dynamic models for predicting shelf life of different varieties of walnut nuts

XU Bin¹^,²(), ZHANG Ting¹^,²(), LIU Sige³, Aibibai Niyazi¹, ZHANG Ping¹^,², Alimire Tulahong³

1. Research Institute of Agro-products Storage and Processing,Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Urumqi 830091, China
2. Xinjiang Engineering Research Center for Intensive Processing of Main Agricultural and Sideline Products, Urumqi 830091, China
3. College of Food Sciences and Pharmacy, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China

Received:2024-11-13 Online:2025-06-20 Published:2025-07-29
Correspondence author: ZHANG Ting
Supported by:
National key R & D Program Project“Development and Application of Metabolism Mechanism, Detection and Control Technology of walnut oil quality"(2022YFD1000103);The Rural Revitalization and Industrial Development of S & T Action Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region“Integration and Popularization of Key Technologies for Pest Control and Quality Preservation of Xinjiang Characteristic Dried(nuts)Fruit”(2022CN181)

不同品种核桃坚果货架期预测动力学模型构建与应用

徐斌¹^,²(), 张婷¹^,²(), 刘思格³, 艾比拜·尼亚孜¹, 张平¹^,², 阿丽米热·吐鲁洪³

1.新疆维吾尔自治区农业科学院农产品加工研究所,乌鲁木齐 830091
2.新疆主要农副产品精深加工工程技术研究中心,乌鲁木齐 830091
3.新疆农业大学食品科学与药学学院,乌鲁木齐 830052

通讯作者: 张婷
作者简介:徐斌(1985-),男,河南南阳人,副研究员,研究方向为农产品加工与保鲜,(E-mail)978142325@qq.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目“核桃油脂品质代谢机理与检测和调控技术研发与应用(2022YFD1000103);新疆维吾尔自治区乡村振兴产业发展科技行动项目“新疆特色干(坚)果防虫保质关键技术集成与推广”(2022CN181)

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】 The study aims to construct a dynamic model for predicting shelf life of different varieties of walnuts,which provides a theoretical basis for the prediction of storage time and the development of oxidative rancidity control technology of walnut nuts in production. 【Methods】 Wen185,Xinxin 2,Zha 343dried walnut (with shell and without shell) were taken as the test materials, and they were placed in 37℃ incubator respectively. Then the samples were taken regularly to determine acid value(AV), peroxide value(POV) and to make the sensory evaluation. Meanwhile, a chemical reaction kinetic model and Arrhenius equation were employed to construct the model for predicting shelf life of different varieties of walnuts, moreover, and afterwards, the model were applied and verified. 【Results】 The AV and the POV increased and the sensory score decreased in all samples during storage period. The linear fitting function of AV and POV with respect to time was known that the change of AV was consistent with the zero-order reaction kinetic model, the change of POV was consistent with the first-order reaction kinetic model, therefore, the shelf life prediction dynamics model based on AV of the three varieties of walnut nuts(with shell and without shell) was:$S L 0=\frac{C \quad C 0}{3128.8 e^{\frac{26009.71}{8.8147}}}$; The shelf life prediction dynamics model based on POV of the three varieties of walnut nuts(with shell and without shell) was:$S L 1=\frac{\ln \frac{C}{C 0}}{3128.8 e^{\frac{26009.71}{8.8147}}}$. 【Conclusion】 The error between the predicted value and the measured value was less than 10% of the three varieties of walnut nuts by verified.The model can predict the shelf life of walnut nuts well.

Key words: walnut nuts; shelf life; prediction; kinetic model

摘要：

【目的】构建适用于不同品种核桃坚果货架期预测动力学模型,为生产中核桃坚果贮藏时间的预判和氧化酸败调控技术研发提供理论依据。【方法】以温185、新新2和扎343核桃坚果(带壳和不带壳)为试材,分别将其置于37℃恒温箱中,定期取样进行酸价(AV)、过氧化值(POV)的测定和感官评价,利用化学反应动力学模型,结合阿伦尼乌斯(Arrhenius)方程,分别构建适于不同品种核桃坚果货架期预测模型,并进行应用验证。【结果】随贮藏时间延长,温185、新新2、扎343核桃坚果(带壳和不带壳)AV和 POV均呈上升的趋势,感官评分不断下降。AV的变化符合零级反应动力学模型,POV的变化符合一级反应动力学模型,故三个品种核桃坚果(带壳和不带壳)基于AV的货架期预测动力学模型为:$S L 0=\frac{C \quad C 0}{3128.8 e^{\frac{26009.71}{8.8147}}}$;基于POV的货架期预测动力学模型为:$S L 1=\frac{\ln \frac{C}{C 0}}{3128.8 e^{\frac{26009.71}{8.8147}}}$。【结论】三个品种核桃坚果货架期预测值与实测值间误差均小于10%,模型可较好地预测核桃坚果的货架期。

关键词: 核桃坚果, 货架期, 预测, 动力学模型

CLC Number:

S664.1

XU Bin, ZHANG Ting, LIU Sige, Aibibai Niyazi, ZHANG Ping, Alimire Tulahong. Construction and application of dynamic models for predicting shelf life of different varieties of walnut nuts[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2025, 62(6): 1469-1477.

徐斌, 张婷, 刘思格, 艾比拜·尼亚孜, 张平, 阿丽米热·吐鲁洪. 不同品种核桃坚果货架期预测动力学模型构建与应用[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2025, 62(6): 1469-1477.

Figures/Tables 7

Tab.1 Scale for sensory evaluation of walnut nuts

描述(壳) Describe(shell)	评分值 Evaluation value	描述(仁) Describe(benevolence)	评分值 Scoring value
壳色自然,黄白色 Natural shell color,Yellow and white	10~8分(好)	种皮色浅黄、种仁色黄、风味浓郁	10~8分(好)
壳色灰白 The shell is gray	7~5分(一般)	种皮色褐黄、种仁色黄、风味淡	7~5分(一般)
壳色黄褐 Shell color is yellow and bran	4~2分(较差)	种皮色深黄或者琥珀色、种仁色褐黄、微有哈喇味	4~2分(较差)
壳色黄褐(暗) Shell color is yellow and bran(Dark)	1~0分(差)	种皮褐色有大量黑斑、种仁黑色、哈喇味重	1~0分(差)

Fig.1 Changes of AV for different varieties of walnut nuts without shell(Fig.1A) and with shell(Fig.1B) during storage Notes:The different minuscule expression the experimental data has significant difference (P<0.05),the same as below

Fig.2 Changes of POV for different varieties of walnut nuts without shell(Fig.2A) and with shell(Fig.2B) during storage

Fig.3 Changes of sensory scores for different varieties of walnut nuts without shell(Fig.3A) and with shell(Fig.3B) during storage

Tab.2 Parameter for kinetic models of AV in different varieties of walnut nuts

原料 Raw material	加速实验温度 Accelerated real temperature(℃)	级数 Series	线性回归方程 Equation of linear regression	反应速率常数K Reaction rate constant K	回归系数R² Coefficient of regression R²	R²和 R² sum
温185去壳 Wen185 dehulling	37	0级	y=0.0048x +0.097 3	0.0048	0.8384	2.723
新新2去壳 Xinxin 2 dehulling			y=0.0026x +0.084 8	0.0026	0.9484
扎343去壳 Zha 343 dehulling			y=0.0023x +0.151 4	0.0023	0.9357
温185去壳 Wen185 dehulling	37	1级	y=0.013 9x -2.28	0.013 9	0.787	2.637
新新2去壳 Xinxin 2 dehulling			y=0.024 1x -2.455 8	0.024 1	0.926 3
扎343去壳 Zha 343 dehulling			y=0.013 6x -1.885	0.013 6	0.924
温185带壳 Wen185 with shell	37	0级	y=0.004 3x +0.096 1	0.004 3	0.862 5	2.733
新新2带壳 Xinxin 2 with shell			y=0.002 2x +0.076 3	0.002 2	0.907 7
扎343带壳 Zha 343 with shell			y=0.002 3x +0.147 7	0.002 3	0.962 8
温185带壳 Wen185 with shell	37	1级	y=0.013x -2.297 5	0.013	0.825 7	2.710
新新2带壳 Xinxin 2 with shell			y=0.021 3x -2.546 7	0.021 3	0.925 5
扎343带壳 Zha 343 with shell			y=0.013 7x -1.906 7	0.013 7	0.958 4

Tab.3 Parameter for kinetic models of POV in different varieties of walnut nuts

原料 Raw material	加速实验温度 Accelerated real temperature(℃)	级数 Series	线性回归方程 Equation of linear regression	反应速率常数K Reaction rate constant K	回归系数R² Coefficient of regression R²	R²和 R² sum
温185去壳 Wen185 dehulling	37	0级	y=0.007 6x +0.011 3	0.007 6	0.910 4	2.626 3
新新2去壳 Xinxin 2 dehulling			y=0.005 4x +0.033 8	0.005 4	0.782 5
扎343去壳 Zha 343 dehulling			y=0.006 4x +0.043 4	0.006 4	0.933 4
温185去壳 Wen185 dehulling	37	1级	y=0.104 6x -3.732 5	0.104 6	0.938 7	2.891 7
新新2去壳 Xinxin 2 dehulling			y=0.069 8x -3.244 2	0.069 8	0.963 8
扎343去壳 Zha 343 dehulling			y=0.075 6x -3.127 5	0.075 6	0.989 2
温185带壳 Wen185 with shell	37	0级	y=0.006 6x +0.009 7	0.006 6	0.911 4	2.694 9
新新2带壳 Xinxin 2 with shell			y=0.005 3x +0.024 4	0.005 3	0.842 4
扎343带壳 Zha 343 with shell			y=0.006 1x +0.036 2	0.006 1	0.941 1
温185带壳 Wen185 with shell	37	1级	y=0.102 6x -3.857 5	0.102 6	0.956 2	2.885 8
新新2带壳 Xinxin 2 with shell			y=0.075 8x -3.440 8	0.075 8	0.957 3
扎343带壳 Zha 343 with shell			y=0.077 6x -3.243 3	0.077 6	0.972 3

Tab.4 Predicted and actual shelf life of different walnut nuts stored at 37℃

原料 Raw material	试验指标 Experimental indexes	货架期预测模型 Shelf life prediction model	国标限量值 International limit value	37℃货架期预测值 Shelf life prediction at 37℃ (d)	37℃货架期实测值 Measured value of shelf life at 37℃ (d)	相对误差 Relative error value (%)
温185 Wen 185	AV	SL0= $C 0.093 3 128.8 e 26 009.71 8.814 7$	3mg/g	23.2	25	7.2
新新2 Xinxin 2		SL0= $C 0.079 3 128.8 e 26 009.71 8.814 7$		23.3	25	6.8
扎343 Zha 343		SL0= $C 0.145 3 128.8 e 26 009.71 8.814 7$		22.8	24	5.0
温185 Wen 185	POV	SL1= $l n C 0.022 3 128.8 e 26 009.71 8.814 7$	0.08g/100g	10.3	10	3.0
新新2 Xinxin 2		SL1= $l n C 0.029 3 128.8 e 26 009.71 8.814 7$		8.2	9	8.9
扎343 Zha 343		SL1= $l n C 0.025 3 128.8 e 26 009.71 8.814 7$		9.3	9	3.3

Tab.4 Predicted and actual shelf life of different walnut nuts stored at 37℃

原料 Raw material	试验指标 Experimental indexes	货架期预测模型 Shelf life prediction model	国标限量值 International limit value	37℃货架期预测值 Shelf life prediction at 37℃ (d)	37℃货架期实测值 Measured value of shelf life at 37℃ (d)	相对误差 Relative error value (%)
温185 Wen 185	AV	SL0= $C 0.093 3 128.8 e 26 009.71 8.814 7$	3mg/g	23.2	25	7.2
新新2 Xinxin 2		SL0= $C 0.079 3 128.8 e 26 009.71 8.814 7$		23.3	25	6.8
扎343 Zha 343		SL0= $C 0.145 3 128.8 e 26 009.71 8.814 7$		22.8	24	5.0
温185 Wen 185	POV	SL1= $l n C 0.022 3 128.8 e 26 009.71 8.814 7$	0.08g/100g	10.3	10	3.0
新新2 Xinxin 2		SL1= $l n C 0.029 3 128.8 e 26 009.71 8.814 7$		8.2	9	8.9
扎343 Zha 343		SL1= $l n C 0.025 3 128.8 e 26 009.71 8.814 7$		9.3	9	3.3

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Construction and application of dynamic models for predicting shelf life of different varieties of walnut nuts

不同品种核桃坚果货架期预测动力学模型构建与应用

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