基于分位数回归方法分析南疆三地州小农户收入的影响因素

doi:10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2019.11.022

新疆农业科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11): 2148-2156.DOI: 10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2019.11.022

• 土壤肥料·林业·贮藏加工·植物保护·畜牧·农业经济 • 上一篇

基于分位数回归方法分析南疆三地州小农户收入的影响因素

王光耀¹, 苏武峥², 罗万云³

1.石河子大学,新疆石河子 832000;
2.新疆农业科学院农业经济与科技信息研究所,乌鲁木齐 830091;
3.兰州大学经济学院, 兰州 730000

收稿日期:2019-06-11 出版日期:2019-11-20 发布日期:2019-12-09
作者简介:王光耀(1983-),男,河南省周口人,讲师,博士,研究方向为人口资源与环境,(E-mail)wgy010261@yeah.net
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目“新疆南疆四地州农村结构性贫困治理与乡村振兴统筹衔接问题研究”(19BGL280);自治区公益性科研项目“乡村振兴战略背景下南疆特色主导产业中小农户与现代农业有机衔接问题研究”(KY2019032);石河子大学高层次人才引进项目“兵团向南发展中水资源供需平衡研究”(RCSK2018C13)

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Small Farmers' Income in Three Prefectures of Southern Xinjiang Based on Quantile Regression Method

WANG Guang-yao¹, SU Wu-zheng², LUO Wan-yun³

1. Shihezi University, Shihezi Xinjiang 832000 , China;
2.Institute of Agricultural Economy and Scientific Technical Information,Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Urumqi 830091,China;
3.School of Economics , Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received:2019-06-11 Published:2019-11-20 Online:2019-12-09
Supported by:
Supported by the National Social Science Foundation Project "Study on the Integration of the Rural Structural Poverty and the Rural Rejuvenation in the Four Prefectures in Southern Xinjiang"(19BGL280);Basic Scientific R & D Program of Public Welfare Research Institutes of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China "A study on the Organic Connection between Small and Medium-sized Farmers and Modern Agriculture in the Characteristic Leading Industry of Southern Xinjiang under the Background of Rural Revitalization Strategy" (KY2019032); the High-level Talent Introduction Project of Shihezi University "Study on the Supply and Demand Balance of Water Resources towards South of XPCC" (RCSK2018C13)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】分析新疆南疆三地州小农户收入的影响因素。【方法】采用问卷调查、座谈会与实地考察、官方网站文献资料的搜集与整理等方法收集数据,并对数据进行汇总整理和加工,运用分位数回归建模等方法对新疆南疆三地州580份问卷进行分析。【结果】南疆三地州人均耕地面积对于中高位收入者群体(25%、50%、75%和90%段位)影响显著,且均在1%的显著水平上呈正相关关系,系数估值分别为0.012 7、0.011 1、0.016 5、0.022 8;家庭劳动力人数比例对介于25%～75%段位的收入家庭影响显著,在5%的显著水平上系数估值分别为0.701、0.894、0.762;家庭劳动力平均受教育年限只对中等收入群体(50%和75%两个段位)影响显著,在5%的显著水平上系数估值分别为0.036 0、0.039 4;家庭劳动力平均工作年限对除10%分位段之外家庭收入群体呈显著负相关影响,系数估值分别为-0.023 3、-0.015 5、-0.011 8、-0.014 3;家庭农业机械化水平只对高收入群体家庭影响显著,对90%分位段收入家庭在5%显著水平上影响显著,系数估值为0.123。【结论】家庭人均年耕地面积对中高收入小农户家庭收入呈显著正向影响,家庭劳动力人数比例和家庭劳动力平均受教育年限对中等收入小农户家庭收入呈显著正向影响,家庭劳动力平均工作年限对中高收入小农户家庭收入呈显著负向影响,家庭农业机械化水平对高收入小农户家庭收入呈显著正向影响。

关键词: 小农户; 家庭收入; 分位数回归; 家庭收入结构

Abstract: 【Objective】 To analyze the influencing factors of small farmers' income in the three prefectures of southern Xinjiang in the hope of providing consultations to increase the income of small farmers. 【Method】 The data were obtained through questionnaires, forums and community visits, collection and collation of official website documents, and furthermore, the data were collected and processed, quantile regression modeling and other methods were used to analyze 580 questionnaires in the three prefctures in southern Xinjiang.【Result】 The per capita arable land area had a significant impact on the middle and high income groups(25%, 50%, 75% and 90% segment), and both were positively correlated at a significant level of 1%. The coefficient estimates were 0.012,7, 0.011,1, 0.016,5 and 0.022,8 respectively; The proportion of household labor force had a significant impact on income households between 25% and 75%, and the coefficient estimates were 0.701, 0.894, and 0.762 at the significant level of 5%; The average duration of education of the family labor force only had a significant impact on the middle-income groups (50% and 75%). At the significant level of 5%, the coefficients were estimated to be 0.036,0 and 0.039,4, respectively; The average working life of the family labor force had a significant negative correlation effect on the family income group except the 10% sub-segment, and the coefficient estimates were -0.023,3, -0.015,5, -0.011,8 and -0.014,3 respectively; The level of family agricultural mechanization only had a significant impact on high-income groups, and had a significant impact on 90% of households with subsection income at 5% significant level, with a coefficient of 0.123. 【Conclusion 】 It was found that the average annual cultivated land area of per household had a significant positive impact on the family income of middle-income and high-income small farmers, the proportion of household labor force and the average duration of education for household labor had a significant positive impact on the family income of middle-income small farmers, and the average working life family labor had a significant negative impact on the family income of medium and high income smallholder farmers, the level of agricultural mechanization of household had a significant positive impact on the family income of high-income smallholder farmers.

Key words: smallholder farmers; family income; quantile regression; family' s income

中图分类号:

王光耀, 苏武峥, 罗万云. 基于分位数回归方法分析南疆三地州小农户收入的影响因素[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2019, 56(11): 2148-2156.

WANG Guang-yao¹, SU Wu-zheng², LUO Wan-yun. Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Small Farmers' Income in Three Prefectures of Southern Xinjiang Based on Quantile Regression Method[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2019, 56(11): 2148-2156.

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基于分位数回归方法分析南疆三地州小农户收入的影响因素

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Small Farmers' Income in Three Prefectures of Southern Xinjiang Based on Quantile Regression Method

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