Abstract: 【Objective】 Ecological vulnerability assessment is an important way to understand ecological status of region. Scientific assessment of ecological vulnerability and its changes is important for the formulation of ecological protection measures and regional sustainable development.【Method】 In this project, 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region were taken as the research object, and the evaluation index system was constructed based on VSD (Vulnerability Scoping Diagram) evaluation model. Principal component analysis and comprehensive index method were used to quantitatively evaluate the ecological vulnerability and comprehensive vulnerability of various prefectures and cities in Xinjiang from 2007 to 2017.【Result】 (1) On the whole, Turpan City was in an extremely vulnerable area affected by climatic conditions, most of the southern Xinjiang was in a severe vulnerable area, while the northern Xinjiang was mainly a mild vulnerable area. (2) Exposure index and sensitivity index of Xinjiang changed little from 2007 to 2017,but the adaptability index increased and the comprehensive ecological vulnerability showed a slight downward trend. (3) The ecological vulnerability was higher in the southern Xinjiang than in northern Xinjiang, which might be closely related to the improvement of adaptability.【Conclusion】The key to reduce the vulnerability is to focus on improving the ecological adaptability of the moderate and severe vulnerable areas.

Key words: VSD model; ecological vulnerability; principal component assessment

摘要： 【目的】 生态脆弱性评价作为了解区域生态状况的重要途径,评估区域生态脆弱性状况及变化。【方法】 研究以新疆14个地州市为研究对象,基于VSD(Vulnerability Scoping Diagram)评价模型构建评价指标体系,利用主成分分析及综合指数法定量评估新疆各地州市2007~2017年生态脆弱性状况及其综合脆弱性。【结果】 (1)受气候条件影响吐鲁番市一直处于极端脆弱区,新疆南疆大部分地区处于重度脆弱区,而北疆以轻度脆弱区为主。(2)2007~2017年新疆的暴露度指数和敏感性指数变化不大,适应力指数有所提升,综合生态脆弱性呈小幅下降趋势。(3)新疆生态脆弱性呈南高北低的分布特征,综合脆弱性的下降与适应力的提升有较大关系。【结论】 针对中重度脆弱区着重提高其生态适应力是降低新疆地区生态脆弱性的关键所在。

关键词: VSD评价模型, 生态脆弱性, 主成分分析法