基于MaxEnt模型的新疆地区扶桑绵粉蚧适生性分析

Suitability analysis of Phenacoccus solenopsis in Xinjiang region based on MaxEnt model

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 扶桑绵粉蚧（Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley）作为我国重大植物检疫性害虫，近年来频繁入侵新疆，已对新疆农林业尤其是棉花产业构成了严重威胁。明确其在新疆的潜在适生区以及未来扩散趋势，可为新疆开展扶桑绵粉蚧的监测预警和阻截提供指导。
    方法 基于MaxEnt生态位模型结合分布点位以及最新版WorldClim 2.1气象数据对当前和未来不同气候背景下扶桑绵粉蚧在新疆的潜在适生区进行预测分析，并评估模型精度，筛选主导环境变量及其最适值。
    结果 不同情景下的曲线下面积（Area under curve，AUC）值均为0.969，表明当前及未来情景下模型预测的结果与实际分布拟合度很高。当前扶桑绵粉蚧在新疆适生区面积为36.89×104 km2，占新疆总面积的22.15%，主要分布于吐鲁番市、哈密市、塔城地区、巴音郭楞蒙古自治州北部、喀什地区及和田地区。未来气候条件下，扶桑绵粉蚧的潜在适生区范围扩散明显。高适生区面积较当前增加1.63%~200%；中适生区面积较当前增加4.22%~183%；低适生区面积较当前增加120%~364%。
    结论 当前和未来气候条件下扶桑绵粉蚧在新疆均有着较为广泛的适生区域，且其预测适生区与主要寄主棉花种植区域高度重合。未来，扶桑绵粉蚧传入新疆并定殖的风险将不断增大。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley, a major quarantine pest in China, has frequently invaded Xinjiang in recent years and posed a serious threat to the agricultural and forestry industry in Xinjiang, especially the cotton industry. By identifying its potential suitable areas in Xinjiang and its future diffusion trend, it can provide scientific guidance for monitoring, warning and interception of Phenacoccus solenopsis in Xinjiang.
    Methods Based on the MaxEnt niche model, combined with the distribution points and the latest WorldClim 2.1 meteorological data, the distribution of potential suitable areas in Xinjiang was predicted and analyzed under different current and future climate backgrounds, and the accuracy of the model was evaluated, leading environmental variables and their optimal values were screened.
    Results The Area under curve (AUC) values under different scenarios were 0.969, indicating that the predicted results of the model had a high degree of fitting with the actual distribution under current and future scenarios. At present, the total area of the suitable area of Xinjiang is 36.89×104 km2, accounting for 22.15% of the total area of Xinjiang. It is mainly distributed in Turpan City, Hami City, Tacheng Prefecture, northern Bayingoleng Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Kashgar Prefecture and Hotan Prefecture. In the future climate conditions, the potential suitable area of Phenacoccus solenopsis will spread significantly. The area of high suitability area increased by 1.63%−200% compared with the current scenario, and decreased by 15.69% in 2070s under ssps5-8.5 scenario. The area of middle suitable area increased by 4.22%−183% compared with the current, and the area of low suitable area increased by 120%−364% compared with the current.
    Conclusion In the future climate conditions, there will be a relatively wide range of suitable areas in Xinjiang. The predicted suitable areas are consistent with the results of the invaded distribution points of Xinjiang. Moreover, its main host cotton is widely planted in Xinjiang, which coincides with the future diffusion area.

     

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