Abstract: 【Objective】 To identify drivers of declining spring wheat cultivation area in Xinjiang and evaluate industry development potential. 【Methods】 We analyzed 2023-2025 data on planting area, high-yield programs, varietal traits, and policy impacts. 【Results】 Xinjiang’s spring wheat area declined continuously, reaching 247,000 hm² (3.7 million mu) in 2024 and falling further to 209,000 hm² (3.14 million mu) in 2025.Four key drivers were identified: Subsidy disparities (spring wheat: 115 yuan/mu vs.winter wheat: 52% higher); Lower profitability (net profit 980-1,280 yuan/667m² below cotton); Water competition (irrigation guarantee <65%; Agricultural water deficit: 1.26 billion m²);Heightened climate risks (late spring cold in North Xinjiang and dry-hot winds in South Xinjiang reducing yields by 15%).Despite high-yield potential (e.g., Liangchun 1758 set a national record 848.42 kg/667m² with high quality crude protein ≥13.27%), industry advancement is constrained by obsolete cultivars (>9 years in use) and prevalent on-farm seed retention (64.3%).Resolving the tension between high-yield potential and area decline requires policy adjustments, varietal innovation, and efficient resource use for sustainable development. 【Conclusion】 Equalizing subsidies (to 230 yuan/667m² in 2025), adopting water-saving technologies, and accelerating new variety uptake are essential to stabilize production.