新疆县域农作物种植结构时空演变及影响因素

Spatio-temporal evolution and its influence factors of crop planting structure at county level in Xinjiang

  • 摘要:
    目的 研究新疆县域农作物种植结构类型时空演变格局,并探讨其影响因素,为新疆农作物种植结构优化、农业可持续发展提供参考依据。
    方法 针对种植结构类型和种植比例,综合运用时序变化趋势分析、空间集聚分析等方法,结合GIS技术研究1990~2020年新疆县域农作物种植结构时空演变的阶段性特征及影响因素。
    结果 (1)1990~2020年新疆种植结构类型丰富度指数先增后减,前10位的种植结构类型有22种,共71个县市农作物种植结构类型发生调整,主要调整方向为降低小麦、油料种植比例,增加棉花、蔬菜种植比例,农作物种植结构类型由以粮食作物组合为主演变为“粮−经−草”多元化种植结构格局。(2)新疆全部种植县中,有75.3%的小麦、63.5%的油料、51.8%的水稻、29.4%的苜蓿、27.1%的豆类和甜菜种植比例显著减少,其他作物呈显著增加趋势。(3)11类主要农作物中,以油料、玉米、小麦和蔬菜种植结构变化趋势的空间集聚效应更为明显,全局Moran’s I指数分别为0.65、0.46、0.36和0.32,高聚集县数占比分别为9.41%、15.29%、14.12%和10.59%。(4)新疆农作物种植结构时空演化过程是区域自然条件、社会发展、产业环境、科技水平和农业政策交互作用的综合过程。
    结论 新疆县域尺度农作物种植结构类型和变化趋势时空差异明显,其影响因素具有复杂多元性。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To study the spatio-temporal evolution pattern and influencing factors of crop planting structure types in Xinjiang counties, so as to provide reference for crop planting structure optimization and agricultural sustainable development in Xinjiang.
    Methods From the perspective of planting structure type and planting proportion, the temporal change trend analysis, spatial agglomeration analysis and other methods were used to study the phased characteristics and influencing factors of the spatio-temporal evolution of county crop planting structure in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 in combination with GIS technology.
    Results (1) There were 22 kinds of crop combinations ranking in the Xinjiang's top 10 from 1990 to 2020. 71 counties adjusted the combination of grain crops to a "grain - economy - grass" diversified planting structure, which was reflected in reducing the wheat and oil crops planting scale and increasing the cotton and vegetables crops, the type richness index increased first and then decreased. (2) Among all the planting counties in Xinjiang, a significant reduction in the proportion of planting was observed in 75.3% of the wheat-growing counties, 63.5% of the oilseed-growing counties, 51.8% of the rice-growing counties, 29.4% of the alfalfa-growing counties, 27.1% of the legume-growing counties, and those cultivating sugar beets. Conversely, a notable increasing trend was identified in the cultivation of other crops. (3) The spatial clustering of structural shifts in the cultivation of 11 key crops was particularly evident for oilseeds, corn, wheat, and vegetables, with global Moran’s I indices at 0.65, 0.46, 0.36, and 0.32, respectively. The proportions of counties with high clustering were 9.41%, 15.29%, 14.12%, and 10.59% for each of these crops, respectively. (4) The spatio-temporal evolution process of crop planting structure in Xinjiang was a comprehensive process of the interaction of regional natural conditions, social development, industrial environment, scientific and technological level and agricultural policy.
    Conclusion The types and trends of crop planting structures at the county level in Xinjiang exhibit significant spatiotemporal differences, and the influencing factors are complex and multifaceted.

     

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