二氧化硫在鲜食葡萄果柄中的积累预测模型

Prediction model of sulfur dioxide accumulation in fresh grape stalk

  • 摘要: 【目的】 分析不同浓度SO2处理、SO2积累与果柄生理参数和结构间关系,构建SO2积累多元线性回归模型,为SO2在鲜食葡萄中的精准科学的使用提供理论依据。 【方法】 以火焰无核、夏黑、美人指、无核白、巨峰、红地球、甜蜜蓝宝石、阳光玫瑰、木纳格、克瑞森、紫珍香11种葡萄品种为研究材料,采用不同浓度SO2处理(100、1 000、5 000和10 000 μL/L),利用相关性和多元线性回归分析方法,探究果柄长、宽、表面积、水分含量、皮孔面积与果柄中SO2积累量间的关系。 【结果】 水分含量和皮孔面积与果柄中SO2积累成正相关。用熏蒸浓度(X1)、水分含量(X2)、皮孔面积(X3)构建预测果柄中SO2积累的多元线性回归方程。得到积累预测模型Y= 0.31X1 + 1 214.08X2 + 1 261.34X3 - 1040.50。回归方程的决定系数(R2)为0.962,显著性F检验对应P为0,自变量对因变量有极限著影响(P<0.01)。该方程符合正态分布,且具有较高的拟合度,经验证发现,模型预测值与实际值平均相对误差为0.04%,误差较低。 【结论】 采用多元线性回归模型预测果柄中含水量与SO2的积累预测结构较准确,误差较低,有较高可行性。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】 Thus laying a theoretical foundation for the accumulation of SO2 in grapes based on linear regression analysis. 【Methods】 Eleven grapes, including Flame Seedless, Summer Black, Manicure Finger, Thompson Seedless, Kyoho, Red Globe, Sweet Sapphire, Sunnny Rose, Munage, Crimson, Zizhenxiang, were studied by using correlation and multiple linear regression analysis methods to explore the relationship between stem length, width, surface area, water content, skin hole area and SO2 accumulation in fruit stalks. 【Results】 The Pearson correlation showed that water content and skin hole area were positively correlated with SO2 accumulation in fruit stalks. The multiple linear regression equation for predicting SO2 accumulation in fruit stem was constructed by fumigation concentration (X1), moisture content (X2) and skin hole area (X3). The cumulative prediction model Y= 0.31X1 + 1,214.08X2 + 1,261.34X3-1,040.50 was obtained. The coefficient of determination (R2) of the regression equation was 0.962, The F test of significance corresponds to a P of 0, and the independent variable had a limiting influence on the dependent variable (P < 0.01). The results of regression standardized residual analysis showed that the equation conformed to normal distribution and had a high degree of fit. The average relative error between the predicted value and the actual value of the model was 0.04%, which was a low error. 【Conclusion】 The prediction structure of water content and SO2 accumulation in fruit stem by using multiple linear regression model is more accurate, the error is lower, and it has high feasibility.

     

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