基于年际变化的枸杞多元素产地判别模型稳定性分析

Analysis on the multi-elements origin discrimination model of wolfberry based on interannual changes

  • 摘要: 【目的】 分析枸杞果实中15种矿物元素的含量,比较不同年际、产地来源的枸杞果实矿物元素含量的差异,建立基于多元素分析的枸杞产地真实性鉴别模型,探讨产地真实性鉴别方法的稳定性和可靠性。 【方法】 连续3年(2020~2022年)采集新疆精河县和宁夏中宁县的枸杞果实,共264份样品。采用电感耦合等离子质谱仪分析Na、Mo、Mn、Rb、Mg、Ca、Cu、Sr、Cr、Ni、K、Co、Ba、Fe和Zn 15种矿物元素的含量,同时结合方差分析和正交偏最小二乘法-判别分析(OPLS-DA)方法鉴别产地。 【结果】 精河枸杞和中宁枸杞Na、Cu、Sr、Mg、Mo、Rb和Mn等7种矿物元素存在显著性差异(P<0.05);Na、Mo、Mn、Rb、Mg、Ca、Cu、Sr、Cr、K、Co、Ba和Zn等13种元素在年际之间存在显著性差异(P<0.05),基于上述15种矿物元素,以2020年的样本作为训练集建立的产地判别模型可100%区分精河枸杞和中宁枸杞,以2021年的样本作为盲样进行验证,其判别准确率为73.68%。以2020~2021年两年的样本建立的判别模型,两个产地判别准确率为96.12%,以2022年的样本作为盲样进行验证,其判别准确率为66.67%。 【结论】 虽然基于单一年份多种矿物元素建立的判别模型可有效区分精河枸杞和中宁枸杞,且准确率均可达95%以上,但对盲样判别的准确率相对较低,说明判别模型的稳定性和可靠性有很强的年际效应。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】 This project aims to analyze the contents of 15 mineral elements in wolfberry and compare the differences in mineral element content of fruit from different years and geographical origins. The purpose is to establish a authenticity identification model based on multiple mineral element analysis and to explore the stability and reliability of authenticity identification methods for origin. 【Methods】 A total of 264 wolfberry fruit samples were collected from Jinghe County of Xinjiang and Zhongning County of Ningxia for 3 consecutive years (2020-2022). The contents of 15 mineral elements such as Na, Mo, Mn, Rb, Mg, Ca, Cu, Sr, Cr, Ni, K, Co, Ba, Fe and Zn were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer, and the origin was identified by analysis of variance and orthogonal partial least square discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA). 【Results】 There were significant differences in 7 mineral elements of Na, Cu, Sr, Mg, Mo, Rb and Mn between Jinghe and Zhongning (P<0.05). 13 elements of Na, Mo, Mn, Rb, Mg, Ca, Cu, Sr, Cr, K, Co, Ba, Zn showed significant differences between the years (P<0.05). Based on the above 15 mineral elements, the origin discrimination model established with the samples of 2020 as the training set could 100% distinguish Jinghe and Zhongning wolfberry. The blind sample in 2021 was used for verification, the discriminant accuracy was 73.68%. The discrimination accuracy of the model based on the samples from 2020 to 2021 was 96.12%, and the discrimination accuracy of the model based on the samples from 2022 was 66.67%. 【Conclusion】 Although the discriminant model based on a variety of mineral elements in a single year can effectively distinguish Jinghe and Zhongning wolfberry, and the accuracy rate can reach more than 95%, the accuracy rate of discriminating blind samples is relatively low, indicating that the stability and reliability of the discriminant model has a strong interannual effect.

     

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