Abstract: 【Objective】 To reveal the dynamic process of the change of agricultural production structure and distribution in Tarim River Basin, sort out the context and stage characteristics of agricultural development, and explore the driving factors of the change of agricultural production structure and distribution. 【Methods】 Based on cotton production panel data of five prefectures of Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2020, the evolution characteristics of cotton production and distribution in the basin were analyzed descriptively by using concentration index, and the driving factors were analyzed quantitatively by using grey correlation model. 【Results】 In the adjustment of planting structure in Tarim River basin, cotton gradually occupied the dominant position, contributing 63.34% to the expansion of crop production scale in the whole basin.The production of long staple cotton fluctuated greatly, and the proportion of the whole Xinjiang and the river basin showed a trend of "double decline".The regional layout gradually changed from "Kashgar area as the main area, Aksu area as the auxiliary area" to "Aksu area as the main area, Kashgar area as the auxiliary area, and Hotan area gradually withdrew", and the county area showed agglomeration development; Cotton production is affected by natural conditions, factor input, industrial policy, industrial chain drive, comparative benefits and other factors, among which agricultural plastic film, fertilizer, agricultural machinery, pesticides and other material inputs have the greatest impact. 【Conclusion】 As the main cotton producing area in Xinjiang, the status of Tarim River basin is increasingly consolidated.It is suggested that the future focus should be on continuously optimizing the regional layout of cotton, strengthening the scientific and technological innovation of cotton, innovating the allocation of production factors, accelerating the deep transformation and upgrading of cotton and cotton textile service industry, so as to promote the high-quality development of cotton industry in the basin.