Abstract:
【Objective】 This thesis aims to determine the spatial distribution characteristics of Codling Moth in walnut orchards in the hope of providing a scientific basis for field surveys, forecasting, and effective control measures.
【Methods】 Methods employed included traditional statistical approaches (six aggregation indices, Taylor's power law, and Iwao's regression model) and geostatistical methods to study the spatial distribution patterns of adult moths and larvae in walnut orchards.Theoretical sampling numbers for adult moths and larvae were established based on Iwao's regression model.
【Results】 The spatial distribution of adult Codling Moth populations in walnut orchards was aggregated.Both adult and larval distributions were of an aggregated type.The aggregation of both adult and larval populations increased with population density, illustrating an aggregated distribution.Iwao's regression model confirmed that the spatial distribution type belonged to an aggregated distribution, specifically fitting a negative binomial distribution.The best fit models for Codling Moth populations were spherical, exponential, and linear, demonstrating an aggregated spatial pattern.Kriging interpolation analysis provided three-dimensional and two-dimensional spatial distribution maps of adult and larval populations, with aggregation centers primarily located at the edges of the fields.Using Iwao's regression model for sampling technology, the theoretical sampling numbers for adult moths at confidence probability
t=2 and varying average densities
m=3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 were established.Sequential sampling was conducted to determine the maximum theoretical sampling numbers; at
t=2 with
D=0.05, 0.10, 0.20 and 0.30, the maximum theoretical sampling numbers for an average density of
m0=3 moths per trap were 3,432, 348, 88 and 92 respectively; for larval stages at confidence probability
t=2 and average densities
m=1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10, the theoretical sampling numbers were determined.Sequential sampling established the maximum theoretical sampling numbers; at
t=2 with
D=0.05, 0.10, 0.20 and 0.30, the maximum theoretical sampling numbers for an average density of
m0=1 larva per hundred fruits were 1,738, 435, 109 and 48 respectively.
【Conclusion】 The spatial distribution patterns of both adult and larval Codling Moth populations are negatively binomially distributed with aggregation centers located mainly at field edges.The theoretical maximum sampling numbers determined by sequential sampling are essential for guiding monitoring and control efforts in walnut orchards.