Abstract: 【Objective】 To better understand the potential spread and risk of willow phytoplasma in China. 【Methods】 In combination with ArcGIS software, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the extent of willow phytoplasma in China's adaptive zones, and the model precision was validated by subject working characteristics (ROC), combined with jackknife-test screening for dominant environmental variables. At the same time, a quantitative analysis system of pest risk was set up to calculate the risk value of willow phytoplasma and evaluate it. 【Results】 The mean area (AUC) under the ROC curve of the MaxEnt model for willow phytoplasma was 0.9795, indicating that the model predicted reliable results. Willow phytoplasma is mainly concentrated in the northwestern, central, eastern, southwestern, northern, and northeastern regions of China in the temperate zones of 22°36'~49°10'N、73°40'~135°05'°E. Among them, the highly suitable areas are mainly in the northwest, central and eastern China, while the moderately suitable areas are mainly in the northeast and central China. The low-conforming areas are mainly in the northeast and southwest, while the non-conforming areas are mainly in southern China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Analysis of the significance of environmental variables obtained by the MaxEnt model formalization training gain cutter method showed that the coldest season mean temperature (Bio11) and driest monthly precipitation (Bio14) had the greatest impact on the distribution of willow phycoplasmosis in China, contributing 72.1% and 17.4%, respectively. Isothermia (Bio3), driest quarterly precipitation (Bio17), coldest quarterly precipitation (Bio19), driest quarterly mean temperature (Bio9) had an impact, contributing 3.7%, 3.7%, 1.9%, 1.2%, in order of magnitude. This means that cooler, drier areas are conducive to the development of willow mycoplasmosis. The risk analysis resulted in the creation of a comprehensive multi-indicator evaluation system with 5 guideline levels and 14 indicator levels, and the quantitative analysis of each indicator level showed that willow phytoplasma had a risk value (R value) of 1.997 in our country, which is considered to be a moderately hazardous forest pest. 【Conclusion】 The risk of willow phytoplasma is high, so it is necessary to establish a surveillance system and take effective control measures against the disease.