Abstract:
【Objective】 To explore the spatio-temporal evolution law of land use and driving mechanism in the process of artificialization oasis in Shihezi Reclamation Area,
【Methods】 Based on the data of TM images in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, the distribution land use pattern in THE past 30 years was analyzed by RS and GIS, the CA-Markov model and the land use gravity center model were used to simulate and predict the land use/cover pattern in 2030 and 2040.
【Results】 (1) From 1990 to 2020, the land use/cover pattern of Shihezi Reclamation Area was dominated by unused land, the main change trends were the expansion of farmland and building, and the decrease of forest and grassland; (2) The center of gravity of forest has migrated most significantly, moving from north to south by 0.6°, farmland had the most dynamic changes, with an average annual increase of 2.72% during the past 30 years, followed by forest land;(3) The Kappa coefficient were both higher than 80.36%.
【Conclusion】 Indicating that the model had high reliability and was suitable for the prediction of land use/cover change and spatial pattern in Shihezi Reclamation Area. The simulation showed the farmland and building would continue to increase.