Abstract:
【Objective】 Combined with the current situation of resource allocation in the planting area, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential suitable area of Xinjiang jujube in the hope of providing effective theoretical guidance and basis for the regional layout and planting structure adjustment of Xinjiang jujube.
【Methods】 Six climatic factors, including annual precipitation, flowering precipitation (May-June), mature precipitation (September-October), annual effective accumulated temperature (≥10℃), annual extreme minimum temperature and average temperature, and two land factors, including oasis irrigation areas and desert sensitive areas, and elevation, had been taken as environmental variables. Geographical distribution data of Xinjiang jujube had been acquired by GIS spatial analysis technology. MaxEnt model was used to model and predict the potential suitable areas for Xinjiang jujube. The main environmental factors and niche parameters were analyzed by percentage contribution rate. The main environmental factors and niche parameters were analyzed by percentage contribution rate.
【Results】 (1) ROC evaluation showed that the AUC values of training data set and testing data set for predicting the potential suitable areas of Xinjiang jujube by MaxEnt model were 0.921 and 0.904 respectively, indicating that the simulation effect was excellent. (2) The total potential suitable areas of jujube in Xinjiang were 23.659 3 million hm
2. Among them, the most suitable areas were 4.293 5 million hm
2, which were mainly distributed in Kashgar Prefecture, Aksu Prefecture, Hetian Prefecture, Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture and Bayingolong Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture of Southern Xinjiang, Turpan City and Hami City of East Xinjiang. (3) The main environmental factors affecting the growth of jujube in Xinjiang were annual minimum temperature (35.15%), oasis irrigation areas (20.77%), annual effective accumulated temperature (19%) and mature precipitation (13.27%). Xinjiang jujube was suitable to grow in the extreme minimum annual temperature which was greater than or equal to -24.65℃, annual effective accumulated temperature was greater than or equal to 35.95℃, mature precipitation was 0.54 -7.64 mm, and oasis irrigation areas could help to improve its suitability.
【Conclusion】 The potential suitable areas of jujube in Xinjiang shows accumulation around Tarim Basin, and the low temperature was the main influencing factor.