Abstract: 【Objective】 To analyze and predict the potential risk areas of Apocheima cinerarius Erschoff in Xinjiang fruit forests in the hope of providing important reference value for effective prevention and key prevention of Apocheima cinerarius Erschoff disaster in Xinjiang fruit forests. 【Method】Based on the actual distribution data and environmental factors data of Apocheima cinerarius Erschoff disaster in Xinjiang fruit forests, the potential risk areas of Apocheima cinerarius Erschoff in Xinjiang fruit forests were predicted by MaxEnt model and GIS spatial analysis technology, and the main environmental factors and niche parameters were analyzed by percentage contribution rate. 【Results】The results showed that: (1) The ROC evaluation (Receiver Operating Characteristic, ROC) showed that the AUC values of the training data set and the test data set of MaxEnt model predicting the potential risk area of Ectropis sinensis were 0.979 and 0.970 respectively, which indicated that the simulation effect was excellent. (2) According to the prediction results of MaxEnt model, the potential distribution area of Apocheima cinerarius Erschoff in Xinjiang fruit forests was divided into risk area and risk-free area, and the total area of risk area was about 74,538,800 hm².(3)Based on cluster analysis, the potential risk areas of Apocheima cinerarius Erschoff in Xinjiang fruit forests were divided into high-risk areas: 1.158 million , medium-risk areas:2.218 million hm²and low-risk areas:4.226 million hm². (4) The main environmental factors affecting the risk of Apocheima cinerarius Erschoff disaster in fruit forests in Xinjiang were the highest temperature in cold month, the average temperature in the coldest season, the precipitation in the driest season and the average temperature in the wettest season. The response curves showed that the highest temperature in the cold month > 14.25 C, the average temperature in the coldest quarter > 4.01 C, the pre-cipitation in the driest quarter was between 1.23-8.29 mm, and the average temperature in the wettest quarter was between 21.63-24.82 C, which was the niche parameter suitable for the growth of Apocheima cinerarius Erschoff in Xinjiang fruit forests and fruits. 【Conclusion】Based on MaxEnt model, the prediction results of potential risk areas of Apocheima cinerarius Erschoff in Xinjiang characteristic forests are completely consistent with the actual distribution areas of Apocheima cinerarius Erschoff. The geographical distribution characteristics of Apocheima cinerarius Erschoff are clear: the high-risk areas are mainly located in Kashgar and Hetian areas, and the middle-risk areas are mainly located in Aksu area, Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture and Hetian area. The low-risk areas are located in Aksu area, Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Hotan area, Kashgar area and Kizilesu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, with a small distribution in Turpan area and Urumqi city. This study has a high reference value for formulating quarantine and prevention policies.