班布蚋在新疆额河流域的分布及在新疆的适生区预测

doi:10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2017.09.015

新疆农业科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (9): 1688-1696.DOI: 10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2017.09.015

班布蚋在新疆额河流域的分布及在新疆的适生区预测

洪波^1,2, 黄敏¹, 胡祖庆¹, 李超³

1.西北农林科技大学植物保护学院,陕西杨凌 712100;
2.陕西省生物农业研究所,陕西西安 710043;
3.新疆农业大学农学院/农林有害生物监测与安全防控重点实验室,乌鲁木齐 830052

收稿日期:2017-09-06 发布日期:2020-07-22
通信作者: 胡祖庆(1979-),男,安徽安庆人,博士,副教授,研究方向为昆虫生态及害虫预测预报,(E-mail)huzuqing@nwsuaf.edu.cn
作者简介:洪波(1982-),男,河南新乡人,博士研究生,研究方向为植保信息技术,(E-mail)hb54829@163.com
基金资助:
科技部惠民计划(2013GS650305);新疆建设兵团博士点基金(2013BB017);新疆生产建设兵团科学技术局项目(2012BAH12B03)

Distribution of Simulium maculatum in Irtysh River Drainage Basin and Potential Distribution Area in Xinjiang

HONG Bo^{1, 2}, HUANG Min¹, HU Zu-qing¹ , LI Chao³

1. College of Plant Protection, Northwest A&F University, Yangling Shaanxi 712100, China;
2. Bio-Agriculture Institute of Shaanxi, Xi'an Shaanxi 710043, China;
3. College of Agronomy / Key Laboratory of the Agriculture and Forestry Pest Monitoring and Safety Control, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China

Received:2017-09-06 Published:2020-07-22
Correspondence author: HU Zu-qing ( 1979- ), male, native place: Anhui,Associate Professor, Research field: Insect ecology and pest forecast.(E-mail)huzuqing@nwsuaf.edu.cn
Supported by:
Huimin Program from the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2013GS650305); Doctoral Fund of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (2013BB017); Project of Science and Technology Bureau of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (2012BAH12B03)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】研究班布蚋Simulium maculatum在新疆不同适生区的划分及影响班布蚋分布的主要环境因子,为班布蚋建立有效的监测预警模型和防控机制提供数据支持。【方法】于2013年6~7月班布蚋盛发期在新疆额尔齐斯河流域7县市12个调查点对其种群数量进行调查,利用MaxEnt模型对班布蚋在新疆地区潜在适生区分布进行预测。【结果】班布蚋在整个额河流域都有分布,且分布趋势为从额河上游到下游种群数量逐渐增加,班布蚋在新疆的高度适生区主要分布在阿勒泰、昌吉州、塔城和博州地区。模型训练数据集和验证数据集的AUC 值分别为0.974 9和0.952 7,模型预测精度较高。【结论】班布蚋在新疆分布的高度适生区主要集中于北疆,高度适生区面积占研究区总面积的4.33%。年最高温度、年最低温度、年平均温度和年有霜期是影响班布蚋潜在分布的主要环境因子。

关键词: 班布蚋; 额尔齐斯河; 适生性分布; MaxEnt; 影响因子

Abstract: 【Objective】 This study aims at clarifying the division of different suitable areas and affecting factors of Simulium maculatum in Xinjiang and providing a scientific basis for the development of monitoring-forecast models and comprehensive prevention and control technology.【Method】The population dynamic of Simulium maculatum was investigated at 12 sites of seven counties in Irtysh river basin from June to July in 2003. The potential distribution area of Simulium maculatum in Xinjiang was predicted by MaxEnt model.【Result】Simulium maculatum was widespread in Irtysh river basin, the population increased from upstream to downstream along the river. The high-risk areas of Simulium maculatum in Xinjiang were mainly distributed in Altay, Changji, Tacheng and Bortala Region. The AUC values of training data sets and test data sets were 0.974,9 and 0.952,7, respectively. The results showed that prediction accuracy was higher.【Conclusion】The high suitable area of Simulium maculatum is mainly distributed in the northern Xinjiang, accounting for 4.33% of the total area. Annual maximum temperature, annual minimum temperature, annual mean temperature and annual amount of frost were the main environmental variables that affected the distribution of Simulium maculatum in Xinjiang.

Key words: Simulium maculatum; Irtysh river; suitable distribution; MaxEnt; affecting factor

中图分类号:

洪波, 黄敏, 胡祖庆, 李超. 班布蚋在新疆额河流域的分布及在新疆的适生区预测[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2017, 54(9): 1688-1696.

HONG Bo, HUANG Min, HU Zu-qing , LI Chao. Distribution of Simulium maculatum in Irtysh River Drainage Basin and Potential Distribution Area in Xinjiang[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2017, 54(9): 1688-1696.

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班布蚋在新疆额河流域的分布及在新疆的适生区预测

Distribution of Simulium maculatum in Irtysh River Drainage Basin and Potential Distribution Area in Xinjiang

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