Abstract: 【Objective】The stability of grain market is the foundation of national economic and social development. Under the background of "double cycle"，China's grain market should base itself on the domestic grain cycle. The immutable factor farmland water conservancy is the new growth point of domestic grain output and the key to the double circulation of Chinese grain market. The aim of this is to explore the impact of irrigation and water conservancy on China's grain market.【Methods】The effective irrigation ratio of cultivated land was taken as the evaluation index. The partial equilibrium model and ARIMA model were established to analyze the impact of farmland water conservancy construction on China's grain market.【Results】The results showed that the effective irrigation ratio of cultivated land increased domestic grain output by 1%，and domestic grain output significantly increased by 618.93 tons，accounting for 1% of the whole domestic grain yield. If the effective irrigation ratio of cultivated land in China increases by 1% year by year，the domestic grain output would reach 838 million tons by 2030，and China will be self-sufficient in the grain market. Farmland irrigation and water conservancy reduced the prices of domestic and imported grain，increased the proportion of farmland under effective irrigation by 1 percent，cut down the price of domestic grain by 2.18 percent and the price of imported grain by 3.37 percent.【Conclusion】Farmland water conservancy helps to promote the stable development of China's grain market. Strengthening the construction and maintenance of farmland water conservancy，increasing the research and development and promotion of farmland water conservancy irrigation technology and scientific utilization of domestic and international resources are the keys to the stable development of China's grain market under the new background.

Key words: double cycle; irrigation and water conservancy; grain market; partial equilibrium model; effective irrigation ratio

摘要： 【目的】粮食市场的稳定是国家经济社会发展的基础，在“双循环”背景下，中国粮食市场要立足国内粮食循环，而农田水利作为国内粮食产量的新增长点之一，是中国粮食市场双循环的关键，研究探讨了农田水利对中国粮食市场的影响。【方法】以耕地有效灌溉比例为评价指标，构建局部均衡模型分析农田水利对中国粮食市场的影响，运用ARIMA模型预测了我国粮食市场供给情况。【结果】农田水利增加了国内粮食产量，耕地有效灌溉比例每提高1%，国内粮食产量显著增加618.93×10⁴ t，占国内粮食产量的1%；若我国耕地有效灌溉比例逐年提高1%，2030年国内粮食产量达到8.38×10⁸ t，中国粮食市场实现自给自足；农田水利降低了国内粮价和进口粮价，耕地有效灌溉比例每提高1%，国内粮价降低2.18%，进口粮价降低3.37%。【结论】农田水利有助于促进中国粮食市场的稳定发展，加强农田水利的建设和维护、加大农田水利灌溉技术的研发和推广、科学利用国内国际资源是新背景下中国粮食市场稳定发展的关键。

关键词: 农田水利, 粮食市场, 局部均衡模型, 有效灌溉比例