Abstract:

【Objective】This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of dry and hot wind disasters in Xinjiang over the past 60 years, and improve understanding of the changes in meteorological disasters in Xinjiang, in the hope of providing reference for regional large-scale dry and hot wind monitoring, warning, and defense by using daily temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed data from 103 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2019.【Methods】Linear trend method was used to analyze the interannual variation characteristics and trends of Xinjiang dry hot wind disasters in time series, and Mann-Kendall mutation test method is applied to compare and analyze the mutation situation of Xinjiang dry hot wind disasters. Meanshile, inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation method was employed to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of mild, moderate, and severe dry hot wind disasters in various regions of Xinjiang.【Results】Since 1960 to 2019, the dry and hot wind disasters in Xinjiang included two types: high temperature and low humidity type and dry wind type, with high temperature and low humidity type being the main disaster type; In terms of time variation, the occurrence of dry and hot winds in Xinjiang showed an overall downward trend, but the interannual fluctuation was significant, with an overall downward trend in fluctuations. Among them, the overall downward trend of high temperature and low humidity dry and hot winds was significant; The dry hot wind type showed an upward trend with significant difference; In terms of spatial variation, the spatial distribution of dry and hot winds was the highest in eastern Xinjiang, followed by northern and southern Xinjiang; The probability of high temperature and low humidity severe dry hot winds occurring in eastern and southern Xinjiang was higher than that in northern Xinjiang; Dry and hot winds mainly occurred in Turpan, Hami, and other places; Naomao Lake and Tokson were heavily affected areas by dry and hot winds.【Conclusion】The research results indicate that the number of days of dry and hot wind disasters in Xinjiang shows a decreasing trend in both time and space, but the proportion of severe high temperature and low humidity types and dry and hot wind types gradually increases, and the degree of disasters gradually worsens.

Key words: dry hot air; agricultural meteorological disasters; linear trend method; mutation testing; inverse distance weighted interpolation method

摘要：

【目的】利用新疆103个气象站1961~2019年的逐日气温、相对湿度和风速数据资料,分析新疆近60a来干热风灾害的时空变化规律,提高对新疆气象灾害变化规律的认识,为区域大范围干热风监测预警及防御提供参考。【方法】在时间序列上采用线性趋势法,分析新疆干热风灾害年际变化特征及趋势,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验法对比分析新疆干热风灾害的突变情况。采用反距离加权(IDW)插值法分析新疆各地轻度、中度、重度干热风灾害的空间分布变化特征。【结果】1960~2019年以来,新疆干热风灾害类型包括高温低湿型和旱风型2种类型,其中高温低湿型为主要灾害类型;在时间变化上,新疆干热风发生整体呈下降趋势,但年际间波动幅度较大,整体呈波动中下降趋势,其中高温低湿型干热风整体下降趋势显著;旱风型干热风呈上升趋势,且上升趋势显著;在空间变化上,干热风的空间分布呈东疆最高,北疆、南疆次之;东疆和南疆发生高温低湿型重度干热风的概率大于北疆;旱风型干热风主要发生在吐鲁番市、哈密市等;淖毛湖和托克逊为干热风的重灾区。【结论】新疆干热风灾害日数在时间和空间上整体呈下降趋势,但高温低湿型重度和旱风型干热风占比逐渐增加,灾害的程度逐步加重。

关键词: 干热风, 农业气象灾害, 线性趋势法, 突变检验, 反距离加权插值法