Abstract:

【Objective】 This project aims at studying the changes in ecosystem service value (ESV) caused by land use changes under multiple scenarios, as well as the spatiotemporal changes and trade-off synergies of ecosystem service functions in the hope of providing decision-making reference. 【Methods】 Taking Turpan City, an extremely arid region, as an example, based on the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS), equivalent factor method, spatial autocorrelation, ESCI, ESTD models, and other methods, the ESV changes, spatiotemporal distribution characteristics, and trade-off synergy relationships in Turpan City from 2010 to 2035 (natural development, farmland protection, ecological protection) were estimated and predicted. 【Results】 (1) From 2010 to 2020, the grassland and construction land areas in Turpan City increased by 0.16×10⁴hm² and 1.98×10⁴hm², respectively, while the cultivated land, forest land, water area, and unused land decreased by 0.51×10⁴, 0.46×10⁴, 0.33×10⁴, and 0.85×10⁴hm², respectively. Under these three scenarios, the reduction rate of water area slowed down and the expansion degree of construction land decreased. (2) In 2010, 2015 and 2020, the ESV in the study area was 213.75×10⁸ Yuan, 209.23×10⁸ Yuan and 205.78×10⁸ Yuan, respectively, showing a linear downward trend, with a total decrease of 7.97×10⁸ Yuan;Under the three simulated scenarios of natural development scenario, cultivated land protection and ecological protection, the ESV showed an upward trend, and the spatial distribution characteristics were "high in the northern mountainous area and low in the southern desert" (3) In 2035, under the three scenarios, the main focus will be on synergy among various ecosystem service functions. The distribution of "high-high" and "low-low" collaborative agglomeration areas is likely to be highly consistent with the distribution of ESV high and low value areas, and the balance relationship would be scattered in the border area between urban and agricultural spaces and other local areas. 【Conclusion】 The ESV of natural development, cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenario was 207.90×10⁸ Yuan、213.06×10⁸ Yuan and 240.40×10⁸ Yuan, all higher than that in 2020 ESV.

Key words: ecosystem services value (ESV); PLUS model; multi-scenario simulation; trade-off synergy

摘要：

【目的】研究多情景土地利用变化下生态系统服务价值(ESV)的协同关系,分析生态系统服务功能时空变化及权衡协同关系。【方法】以极端干旱区新疆吐鲁番市为例,基于土地利用变化模拟模型(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model,PLUS)、当量因子法、空间自相关、ESCI、ESTD模型等方法计算并预测2010~2035年(自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护)吐鲁番市ESV变化、时空分布特征和权衡协同关系。【结果】(1)2010年、2015年和2020年吐鲁番市草地和建设用地面积分别增加0.16×10⁴hm²和1.98×10⁴hm²,耕地、林地、水域和未利用地分别减少0.51×10⁴、0.46×10⁴、0.33×10⁴和0.85×10⁴hm²,各时间段土地利用转移模式为2010~2015年、2015~2020年以未利用地转草地为主,除未利用地外,草地转出和转入面积均最大;(2)2010年、2015年和2020年研究区ESV分别为213.75×10⁸、209.23×10⁸和205.78×10⁸元,呈直线下降趋势,共减少7.97×10⁸元;在自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护3种模拟情景下,ESV呈上升趋势,空间分布特征为“北部山区高-南部荒漠低”;(3)2035年3种情景土地利用变化下,各项生态系统服务功能间以协同为主,“高-高”、“低-低”协同集聚区与ESV高值、低值区分布高度一致,权衡关系零星分布于城镇空间与农业空间交界地带及其他局部地区。【结论】自然发展、耕地保护和生态保护情景ESV依次为207.90×10⁸、213.06×10⁸和240.40×10⁸元,均高于2020年的ESV。

关键词: 生态系统服务价值, PLUS模型, 多情景模拟, 权衡协同