新疆南疆四地州“三生空间”功能耦合协调度分析

doi:10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2024.06.030

新疆农业科学 ›› 2024, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (6): 1553-1560.DOI: 10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2024.06.030

• 畜牧兽医•农业经济 • 上一篇

新疆南疆四地州“三生空间”功能耦合协调度分析

曹健(), 阿依加玛力·阿帕尔, 宋玉兰()

新疆农业大学经济管理学院,乌鲁木齐 830052

收稿日期:2023-10-11 出版日期:2024-06-20 发布日期:2024-08-08
通信作者: 宋玉兰(1979-),女,山西闻喜人,教授,博士,硕士生/博士生导师,研究方向为区域经济政策,(E-mail)59677869@qq.com
作者简介:曹健(1983-),男,新疆乌鲁木齐人,副教授,博士,硕士生导师,研究方向为区域经济,(E-mail)59423111@qq.com
基金资助:
新疆维吾尔自治区“十四五”重大专项项目(2020A01003-4);新疆维吾尔自治区重大科技专项“智慧灌区与现代农业产业绿色发展模式研究与示范”;新疆维吾尔自治区2022年第三批次重大科技专项项目;新疆维吾尔自治区重大科技专项“现代灌区生态农业发展模式与水土资源高效利用技术研究与示范”

Analysis of the coordination of the functions of the "production-living-ecological spaces" in four southern Xinjiang Prefectures

CAO Jian(), Ayijiamali Apaer, SONG Yulan()

College of Economics and Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China

Received:2023-10-11 Published:2024-06-20 Online:2024-08-08
Correspondence author: SONG Yulan(1979-),female,from Wenxi,Shanxi,professor,Ph.D.,doctoral supervisor,research direction: Regional Economic Policy,(E-mail)59677869@qq.com
Supported by:
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region 14th Five-Year Plan Major Special Project;Major Science and Technology Special Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region;Research and Demonstration of Green Development Model of Intelligent Irrigation District and Modern Agricultural Industry;The Third batch of major science and technology special projects in 2022 in Autonomous Regions;Major Science and Technology Spacial Projects in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Regions; Modern irrigation ecological agricultural development model and efficient utilization of water resources technology and demonstration

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】研究新疆南疆四地州“三生空间”功能耦合协调度。【方法】采集《新疆统计年鉴》及《中国县域统计年鉴》(2001~2021面板数据)为主要数据来源,构建新疆南疆四地州“三生空间”功能评价指标体系,采用耦合协调度模型对研究区“三生空间”功能耦合协调度进行测度,利用Tobit模型探测影响因素。【结果】新疆阿克苏地区的“三生空间”功能耦合协调度最好,其耦合协调平均值为0.532,耦合协调度为勉强协调,而其余三地州按耦合协调度平均值从高到低依次为喀什地区、和田地区、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州。【结论】新疆南疆四地州整体“三生空间”耦合协调度处于较低水平,耦合协调等级为濒临失调,其中地均固定资产投资总额和人均社会消费品总额在1%显著的水平上正向影响,对新疆南疆四地州“三生空间”功能耦合协调度有一定的促进作用。

关键词: “三生空间”; 耦合协调度; Tobit模型

Abstract:

【Objective】 To study the degree of functional coupling and coordination of the "three living spaces" in the four southern Xinjiang prefectures. 【Methods】 Eleven years of Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook and China County Statistical Yearbook (2001-2021 panel data) were collected as the main data sources and the evaluation index system of the function of the "three living spaces" in the four southern Xinjiang prefectures was constructed by using relevant indicators.On this basis, the Tobit model was then used to detect the influencing factors. 【Results】 Aksu region has the best coupling coordination of the "three living spaces “functions, with an average coupling coordination value of 0.532, which was barely coordinated, while the remaining three prefectures were Kashgar, Hotan and Kizilsu in descending order of coupling coordination. 【Conclusion】 The overall coupling coordination degree of the "production-living-ecological space" in the four southern prefectures is at a low level, and the coupling coordination level is on the verge of disorder, among which the total fixed asset investment and total social consumption goods per capita are positively influenced at the level of 1%, which has a certain influence on the "three living spaces" in the four southern regions.

Key words: “production-living-ecological space”; coupling coordination degree; Tobit model

曹健, 阿依加玛力·阿帕尔, 宋玉兰. 新疆南疆四地州“三生空间”功能耦合协调度分析[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2024, 61(6): 1553-1560.

CAO Jian, Ayijiamali Apaer, SONG Yulan. Analysis of the coordination of the functions of the "production-living-ecological spaces" in four southern Xinjiang Prefectures[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2024, 61(6): 1553-1560.

图/表 9

参考文献 26

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目标层 Target layer	指标层 Indicator layer	指标性质 The nature of the indica- tors
生产空间功能(X) Production space function	人均耕地面积(X₁)	正向
	人均GDP(X₂)	正向
	地区生产总值(X₃)	正向
	年降水量(X₄)	正向
	年日照数(X₅)	正向
	红枣年总产量(X₆)	正向
	核桃年总产量(X₇)	正向
生活空间功能(Y) Living space function	农业机械总动力(X₈)	正向
	农牧民人均纯收入(Y₁)	正向
	城乡居民人均可支配(Y₂)	正向
	居民拥有病床位数(Y₃)	正向
	人均用水量(Y₄)	正向
	普通中学专任教师数(Y₅)	正向
生态空间功能(Z) Function of ecological space	化肥使用量(Z₁)	正向
	森林覆盖率(Z₂)	正向
	湿地覆盖率(Z₃)	正向
	水土流失治理面积(Z₄)	正向
	有效灌溉面积(Z₅)	正向
	地膜覆盖面积(Z₆)	正向

目标层 Target layer	指标层 Indicator layer	指标性质 The nature of the indica- tors
生产空间功能(X) Production space function	人均耕地面积(X₁)	正向
	人均GDP(X₂)	正向
	地区生产总值(X₃)	正向
	年降水量(X₄)	正向
	年日照数(X₅)	正向
	红枣年总产量(X₆)	正向
	核桃年总产量(X₇)	正向
生活空间功能(Y) Living space function	农业机械总动力(X₈)	正向
	农牧民人均纯收入(Y₁)	正向
	城乡居民人均可支配(Y₂)	正向
	居民拥有病床位数(Y₃)	正向
	人均用水量(Y₄)	正向
	普通中学专任教师数(Y₅)	正向
生态空间功能(Z) Function of ecological space	化肥使用量(Z₁)	正向
	森林覆盖率(Z₂)	正向
	湿地覆盖率(Z₃)	正向
	水土流失治理面积(Z₄)	正向
	有效灌溉面积(Z₅)	正向
	地膜覆盖面积(Z₆)	正向

耦合协调度 D值区间 Coupling degree of coordination D part	协调等级 Coordination level	耦合协调度 Level of coupling coordination
(0.0~0.1)	1	极度失调
[0.1~0.2)	2	严重失调
[0.2~0.3)	3	中度失调
[0.3~0.4)	4	轻度失调
[0.4~0.5)	5	濒临失调
[0.5~0.6)	6	勉强协调
[0.6~0.7)	7	初级协调
[0.7~0.8)	8	中级协调
[0.8~0.9)	9	良好协调
[0.9~1.0)	10	优质协调

耦合协调度 D值区间 Coupling degree of coordination D part	协调等级 Coordination level	耦合协调度 Level of coupling coordination
(0.0~0.1)	1	极度失调
[0.1~0.2)	2	严重失调
[0.2~0.3)	3	中度失调
[0.3~0.4)	4	轻度失调
[0.4~0.5)	5	濒临失调
[0.5~0.6)	6	勉强协调
[0.6~0.7)	7	初级协调
[0.7~0.8)	8	中级协调
[0.8~0.9)	9	良好协调
[0.9~1.0)	10	优质协调

年份 Years	耦合度 C值 Coupling C	协调指数 T值 Harmonis- ation index T	耦合协调度 D值区间 Coupling degree of coordination D part	协调等级 Coordin- ation level	耦合协调度 Level of coupling coordination
2010	0.165	0.196	0.18	2	严重失调
2011	0.593	0.247	0.383	4	轻度失调
2012	0.766	0.268	0.453	5	濒临失调
2013	0.626	0.251	0.397	4	轻度失调
2014	0.827	0.3	0.568	6	勉强协调
2015	0.764	0.38	0.539	6	勉强协调
2016	0.667	0.352	0.485	5	濒临失调
2017	0.888	0.441	0.626	7	初级协调
2018	0.868	0.0458	0.631	7	初级协调
2019	0.861	0.586	0.711	8	中级协调
2020	0.928	0.833	0.879	9	良好协调

新疆南疆四地州“三生空间”功能耦合协调度分析

Analysis of the coordination of the functions of the "production-living-ecological spaces" in four southern Xinjiang Prefectures

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Metrics

年份 Years	耦合度 C值 Coupling C	协调指数 T值 Harmonis- ation index T	耦合协调度 D值区间 Coupling degree of coordination D part	协调等级 Coordin- ation level	耦合协调度 Level of coupling coordination
2010	0.183	0.283	0.228	3	中度失调
2011	0.594	0.234	0.373	4	轻度失调
2012	0.818	0.583	0.69	7	初级协调
2013	0.799	0.346	0.526	6	勉强协调
2014	0.872	0.629	0.741	8	中级协调
2015	0.666	0.363	0.492	5	濒临失调
2016	0.699	0.378	0.514	6	勉强协调
2017	0.7	0.405	0.533	6	勉强协调
2018	0713	0.574	0.64	7	初级协调
2019	0.717	0.547	0.626	7	初级协调
2020	0.575	0.499	0.535	6	勉强协调

年份 Years	耦合度 C值 Coupling C	协调指数 T值 Harmonis- ation index T	耦合协调度 D值区间 Coupling degree of coordination D part	协调等级 Coordin- ation level	耦合协调度 Level of coupling coordination
2010	0.169	0.171	0.17	2	严重失调
2011	0.537	0.192	0.321	4	轻度失调
2012	0.559	0.201	0.335	4	轻度失调
2013	0.664	0.283	0.433	5	濒临失调
2014	0.789	0.393	0.557	6	勉强协调
2015	0.807	0.327	0.514	6	勉强协调
2016	0.746	0.408	0.552	6	勉强协调
2017	0.711	0.618	0.663	7	初级协调
2018	0.613	0.618	0.616	7	初级协调
2019	0.606	0.728	0.664	7	初级协调
2020	0.598	0.757	0.673	7	初级协调

年份 Years	耦合度 C值 Coupling C	协调指数 T值 Harmonis- ation index T	耦合协调度 D值区间 Coupling degree of coordination D part	协调等级 Coordin- ation level	耦合协调度 Level of coupling coordination
2010	0.272	0.521	0.377	4	轻度失调
2011	0.235	0.064	0.122	2	严重失调
2012	0.609	0.111	0.261	3	中度协调
2013	0.633	0.195	0.351	4	轻度失调
2014	0.803	0.268	0.464	5	濒临失调
2015	0.826	0.335	0.526	6	勉强协调
2016	0.776	0.324	0.501	6	勉强协调
2017	0.775	0.365	0.532	6	勉强协调
2018	0.824	0.422	0.59	6	勉强协调
2019	0.822	0.511	0.648	7	初级协调
2020	0.754	0.536	0.636	7	初级协调

影响因素 Impact factors	面板Tobit随机效应模型 Kneading board tobit random effects model
影响因素 Impact factors	Coef	P值
产业结构 Industrial structure	-0.386^*(-1.83)	0.067
地均固定资产投资总额 Total investment in fixed assets on average	0.053^***(4.83)	0.000
人均社会消费品总额 Per capita social consumption goods	0.147^***(3.34)	0.001
森林覆盖率 Forest coverage	-0.836(-1.00)	0.319
年均降水量 Average annual precipitation	-0.201(-1.38)	0.169
_—Cons	-1.025^***(-2.82)	0.005
Wald chi2	56.54
P	0.0000
N	44