1961~2013年新疆气温和降水的 时空变化特征分析

doi:10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2018.01.014

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】 利用新疆65个气象站1961~2013年的日平均气温和日降水量资料,分析新疆近53 a来气温和降水的时空变化规律。【方法】 采用线性倾向率法,分析新疆1961~2013年以来气温和降水量,在时间序列上,用增减趋势累积距平法和Mann-Kendall突变检验法,对比分析新疆年均温和年降水量的突变情况,采用反距离加权插值法对新疆各站点的气候倾向率进行插值。【结果】 1961~2013年以来,在时间变化上,新疆年均温和降水量均呈显著上升趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.324℃/10 a(P＜0.01)和16.238 mm/10 a(P＜0.01),且突变分别发生在1993和1983年。四季平均气温和降水量也呈现增高的趋势,其中冬季增温幅度最大,为0.39℃/10 a;夏季降水量增多幅度最大,为4.799 mm/10 a。新疆年均温、年降水量、四季均温和四季降水量的年代际变化均呈现出明显的增加趋势。在空间变化上,东疆、北疆西部和北部增温明显;北疆、南疆克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州、喀什地区西部和和田地区东部降水量明显增多。【结论】 新疆气温、降水在时间和空间上均呈增加趋势,呈现出暖湿化现象。

关键词: 降水量; 气候变化; 气温; 突变检验

Abstract: 【Objective】 Based on the daily mean temperature and daily precipitation data collected frp, 65 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1961-2013, the temporal and spatial variations of temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang in recent 53 years were analyzed.【Method】 The linear tendency rate method was used to analyze the increase and decrease trend of temperature and precipitation in the time series in Xinjiang for the past half century and the cumulative anomaly method and Mann-Kendall mutation test method were used to compare and analyze the abrupt changes of average annual moderate precipitation in Xinjiang. Also, the inverse distance weighted interpolation method was applied to interpolate the climatic tendency rate of each station in Xinjiang.【Result】 The results showed that the average annual temperature and precipitation in this region displayed a significant upward trend, the climatic tendency rate respectively was 0.324℃/10 a(P＜0.01)and 16.238 mm/10 a(P＜0.01), and the abrupt change occurred in 1993 and 1983 respectively. In addition, all of the seasonal temperatures and precipitation showed increasing trends, the increase of temperature in winter time was highest(0.39 ℃/10 a), and the increase of precipitation in summer was highest(4.799 mm/10 a). The decade change of annual and seasonal mean temperature and precipitation also showed spatially increasing trends. In the spatial variation, the eastern Xinjiang and the western and northern parts of the northern Xinjiang were significantly warmer, and the precipitation was increased in northern Xinjiang, Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture, the western of Kashgar Prefecture and the eastern Hotan Prefecture in southern Xinjiang.【Conclusion】 The temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang has been increasing in both time and space, showing a warm and humid phenomenon.

Key words: precipitation; climate change; temperature; abrupt change test

中图分类号:

S164
P467

康丽娟,巴特尔·巴克,罗那那,薛亚荣,王孟辉. 1961~2013年新疆气温和降水的时空变化特征分析[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2018, 55(1): 123-133.

KANG Li-juan, Batur Bake, LUO Na-na, XUE Ya-rong, WANG Meng-hui. Spatial-temporal Variations of Temperature and Precipitation in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2013[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2018, 55(1): 123-133.

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