中国大宗农产品国际竞争力的出口效应分析

doi:10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2022.01.029

新疆农业科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (1): 251-260.DOI: 10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2022.01.029

• 畜牧兽医·农业信息·草业·农业经济 • 上一篇

中国大宗农产品国际竞争力的出口效应分析

陈宏伟¹(), 丁建国¹^,², 穆月英¹()

1.中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京 100083
2.新疆农业科学院农业经济与科技信息研究所,乌鲁木齐 830091

收稿日期:2021-08-06 出版日期:2022-01-20 发布日期:2022-02-18
通信作者: 穆月英
作者简介:陈宏伟(1994-),男,安徽亳州人,博士研究生,研究方向为农业经济,(E-mail) hongweichen@cau.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国粮食生产的水资源时空匹配及优化路径研究”(18ZDA074);现代农业产业技术体系北京市果类蔬菜产业创新团队项目(BAIC01-2020)

Research on Export Effect of International Competitiveness of China's Bulk Agricultural Products

CHEN Hongwei¹(), DING Jianguo¹^,², MU Yueying¹()

1. College of Economies and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
2. Institute of Agricultural Economics & Information, Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Urumqi 830091, China

Received:2021-08-06 Online:2022-01-20 Published:2022-02-18
Correspondence author: MU Yueying
Supported by:
National Social Science of China "Study on Time-Space Matching and Optimization Path of Water Resources in China's Food Production"(18ZDA074);Modern Agricultural Industry Technology System of Beijing Fruit and Vegetable Industry Innovation Team Project(BAIC01-2020)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】大宗农产品是中国国际贸易中的基础性商品,研究其国际竞争力对出口的影响,为改善中国大宗农产品贸易条件提供理论依据。【方法】基于联合国贸易数据库2001~2018年相关贸易数据,综合运用国际市场占有率指数和恒定市场份额模型分析中国大宗农产品国际竞争力对出口的影响效应。【结果】2001~2018年中国大宗农产品国际竞争力MS指数由5.63%上升至6.93%,对出口增长的贡献率为33.05%,其中,糖及糖食、棉花及制品的MS指数分别由0.96%、11.22%上升至4.62%、28.12%,出口贡献率分别为33.77%和47.94%,谷物和油料产品的MS指数分别由3.10%、4.94%下降至0.94%、2.69%,出口贡献率分别为-859.52%、-14.81%。【结论】中国大宗农产品国际竞争力提升是出口增长的重要驱动因素,具体竞争力的出口效应高于整体竞争力;糖及糖食、棉花及制品国际竞争力提升的出口增长贡献率较大,而谷物和油料国际竞争力下降对其出口有显著阻碍作用。

关键词: 大宗农产品; 国际竞争力; 出口效应; 国际市场占有率指数; 恒定市场份额模型

Abstract:

【Objective】 Bulk agricultural products are the basic commodities of China's international trade, this project aims to study the contribution of its international competitiveness to export, so as to provide theoretical basis for improving China's agricultural trade terms. 【Method】 Based on the relevant data from 2001 to 2018 in the United Nations comtrade database, this paper analyzes the impact of international competitiveness of China's bulk agricultural products on exports by using the market share index and the constant market share model. 【Result】 The international competitiveness MS index of China's bulk agricultural products increased from 5.63% to 6.93%, the contribution rate to export growth is 33.05%. MS index of sugar and cotton increased from 0.96%, 11.22% to 4.62%, 28.12%, the contribution rates to export growth is 33.77% and 47.94%, respectively, MS index of cereals and oilseeds decreased from 3.10%, 4.94% to 0.94%, 2.69% in 2001 to 2018, the contribution rate are -859.52%, -14.81%.【Conclusion】The improvement of international competitiveness of China's bulk agricultural products is an important driving factor for export growth, export effect of comprehensive competitiveness is higher than specific competitiveness effect, the competitiveness of sugar, cotton and other specific varieties contributes greatly to the export growth, while the decline in the international competitiveness of grain and oil crops hinders its export.

Key words: bulk agricultural products; international competitiveness; export effect; market share index; constant market share model

陈宏伟, 丁建国, 穆月英. 中国大宗农产品国际竞争力的出口效应分析[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2022, 59(1): 251-260.

CHEN Hongwei, DING Jianguo, MU Yueying. Research on Export Effect of International Competitiveness of China's Bulk Agricultural Products[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2022, 59(1): 251-260.

图/表 6

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品种 Varieties	2001	2003	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	2017	2018
小麦Wheat	0.81	2.62	0.34	3.56	0.02	0.09	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.02
玉米Corn	10.86	17.44	10.30	6.47	0.25	0.24	0.15	0.02	0.09	0.03
大米Rice	5.71	4.88	2.11	3.54	4.08	2.16	1.86	1.30	2.95	4.25
高粱Sorghum	0.05	0.13	0.05	0.36	0.09	0.13	0.04	0.02	0.09	0.11
荞麦Buckwheat	0.52	0.47	0.45	0.42	0.35	0.45	0.24	0.21	0.16	0.15
大豆Soybean	1.34	0.86	1.59	1.45	1.85	0.82	0.90	0.61	0.45	0.48
花生Peanut	4.57	3.14	3.00	2.08	1.70	1.32	0.98	1.04	1.11	1.33
葵花籽Sunflower seed	0.33	0.39	1.04	0.79	1.11	1.24	1.49	1.97	2.31	2.73
芝麻Sesame	0.91	0.84	0.57	0.42	0.47	0.34	0.38	0.34	0.32	0.38
糖及糖食Sugar	2.70	1.94	3.92	4.18	6.01	6.53	6.47	7.59	8.71	8.75
棉花及制品Cotton	63.52	61.40	69.83	69.22	74.81	78.50	78.20	76.75	74.88	73.70

品种 Varieties	2001	2003	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	2017	2018
小麦Wheat	0.81	2.62	0.34	3.56	0.02	0.09	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.02
玉米Corn	10.86	17.44	10.30	6.47	0.25	0.24	0.15	0.02	0.09	0.03
大米Rice	5.71	4.88	2.11	3.54	4.08	2.16	1.86	1.30	2.95	4.25
高粱Sorghum	0.05	0.13	0.05	0.36	0.09	0.13	0.04	0.02	0.09	0.11
荞麦Buckwheat	0.52	0.47	0.45	0.42	0.35	0.45	0.24	0.21	0.16	0.15
大豆Soybean	1.34	0.86	1.59	1.45	1.85	0.82	0.90	0.61	0.45	0.48
花生Peanut	4.57	3.14	3.00	2.08	1.70	1.32	0.98	1.04	1.11	1.33
葵花籽Sunflower seed	0.33	0.39	1.04	0.79	1.11	1.24	1.49	1.97	2.31	2.73
芝麻Sesame	0.91	0.84	0.57	0.42	0.47	0.34	0.38	0.34	0.32	0.38
糖及糖食Sugar	2.70	1.94	3.92	4.18	6.01	6.53	6.47	7.59	8.71	8.75
棉花及制品Cotton	63.52	61.40	69.83	69.22	74.81	78.50	78.20	76.75	74.88	73.70

主要出口市场 Main export market	出口额/10⁸美元 Export value(10⁸ dollars)				出口比重 Export share(%)
主要出口市场 Main export market	2001	2010	2015	2018	2001	2010	2015	2018
韩国Korea	7.40	10.43	8.66	7.91	12.84	6.24	4.21	3.79
日本Japan	5.19	6.60	5.20	5.48	9.02	6.24	2.52	2.62
孟加拉国Bangladesh	2.06	13.46	22.69	26.73	3.58	8.06	11.02	12.80
马来西亚Malaysia	1.80	2.42	5.70	2.85	3.12	1.45	2.77	1.37
美国USA	1.71	5.26	7.22	7.18	2.97	3.15	3.51	3.44
印度尼西亚Indonesia	1.46	6.47	7.09	8.75	2.53	3.87	3.44	4.19
菲律宾Philippines	0.81	2.52	11.58	15.07	1.42	1.51	5.63	7.22
越南Vietnam	0.59	13.59	22.34	23.37	1.02	8.13	10.85	11.19
柬埔寨Cambodia	0.51	1.93	3.98	5.75	0.89	1.16	1.94	2.75
泰国Thailand	0.49	3.95	3.98	3.95	0.85	2.37	1.93	1.89

主要出口市场 Main export market	出口额/10⁸美元 Export value(10⁸ dollars)				出口比重 Export share(%)
主要出口市场 Main export market	2001	2010	2015	2018	2001	2010	2015	2018
韩国Korea	7.40	10.43	8.66	7.91	12.84	6.24	4.21	3.79
日本Japan	5.19	6.60	5.20	5.48	9.02	6.24	2.52	2.62
孟加拉国Bangladesh	2.06	13.46	22.69	26.73	3.58	8.06	11.02	12.80
马来西亚Malaysia	1.80	2.42	5.70	2.85	3.12	1.45	2.77	1.37
美国USA	1.71	5.26	7.22	7.18	2.97	3.15	3.51	3.44
印度尼西亚Indonesia	1.46	6.47	7.09	8.75	2.53	3.87	3.44	4.19
菲律宾Philippines	0.81	2.52	11.58	15.07	1.42	1.51	5.63	7.22
越南Vietnam	0.59	13.59	22.34	23.37	1.02	8.13	10.85	11.19
柬埔寨Cambodia	0.51	1.93	3.98	5.75	0.89	1.16	1.94	2.75
泰国Thailand	0.49	3.95	3.98	3.95	0.85	2.37	1.93	1.89

品种Varieties	2001	2003	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	2017	2018
谷物Cereals	3.10	6.69	3.23	2.70	0.79	0.53	0.47	0.28	0.65	0.94
小麦Wheat	0.32	1.65	0.21	1.58	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01
玉米Corn	7.05	16.04	9.73	4.27	0.16	0.14	0.09	0.02	0.06	0.02
大米Rice	5.39	7.02	2.31	3.74	2.76	1.77	1.62	1.15	2.49	3.90
高粱Sorghum	0.38	1.85	0.93	3.51	1.27	1.68	0.60	0.15	1.25	1.88
荞麦Buckwheat	11.19	15.99	13.60	12.87	8.09	11.23	5.18	4.07	3.60	3.36
油料Oilseeds	4.54	4.12	4.61	3.79	3.16	2.87	2.92	3.35	2.71	2.69
大豆Soybean	0.75	0.56	1.09	0.86	0.72	0.35	0.35	0.25	0.16	0.13
花生Peanut	34.15	36.92	33.16	22.46	17.07	10.29	8.99	9.42	8.11	11.84
葵花籽Sunflower seed	2.58	3.44	8.73	6.19	6.05	6.46	7.95	13.18	12.84	13.86
芝麻Sesame	11.90	17.47	8.25	6.39	3.98	3.09	2.67	2.52	3.76	4.98
糖及糖食Sugar	0.96	1.10	1.79	1.99	2.33	2.50	2.90	4.04	3.65	4.62
棉花及制品Cotton	11.22	14.89	16.54	18.97	23.38	22.65	25.45	29.25	27.10	28.12
大宗农产品总体 Bulk agricultural products	5.63	8.07	7.49	7.02	6.11	6.20	6.57	7.27	6.65	6.93

中国大宗农产品国际竞争力的出口效应分析

Research on Export Effect of International Competitiveness of China's Bulk Agricultural Products

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Metrics

项目 Item	2001~2008		2009~2013		2014~2018		2001~2018
项目 Item	出口额 (10⁸美元) Exportvalue (10⁸ dollars)	贡献率 Contribution rate (%)	出口额 (10⁸美元) Export value (10⁸ dollars)	贡献率 Contribution rate (%)	出口额 (10⁸美元) Export value (10⁸ dollars)	贡献率 Contribution rate (%)	出口额 (10⁸美元) Export value (10⁸ dollars)	贡献率 Contribution rate (%)
出口额变动 Export value	83.24	100.00	96.03	100.00	-5.18	100.00	151.27	100.00
竞争力效应 Competitiveness effect	23.01	27.64	6.08	6.33	18.02	-347.88	49.99	33.05
整体竞争力效应 Comprehensive competitiveness effect	0.06	0.07	9.65	10.05	12.00	-231.66	13.30	8.79
具体竞争力效应 Specific competi tiveness effect	22.95	27.57	-3.57	-3.72	6.02	-116.22	36.69	24.25
结构效应 Structuraleffect	63.63	76.44	85.89	89.44	-20.84	402.32	85.88	56.77
增长效应 Growth effect	83.10	99.83	80.34	83.66	-16.27	314.09	112.08	74.09
产品效应 Product effect	-19.47	-23.39	5.55	5.78	-4.57	88.22	-26.20	-17.32
交叉效应 Cross effect	-3.40	-4.08	4.06	4.23	-2.36	45.56	15.40	10.18
纯交叉效应 Pure cross effect	33.20	39.88	3.81	3.97	-1.37	26.45	97.29	64.32
动态交叉效应 Dynamiccross effect	-36.60	-43.97	0.25	0.26	-0.99	19.11	-81.89	-54.13

品种 Varieties	项目 Item	2001~2008		2009~2013		2014~2018		2001~2018
品种 Varieties	项目 Item	出口额 (10⁸美元) Export value (10⁸ dollars)	贡献率 Contribu tion rate (%)	出口额 (10⁸美元) Export value (10⁸ dollars)	贡献率 Contribu tion rate (%)	出口额 (10⁸美元) Export value (10⁸ dollars)	贡献率 Contribu tion rate (%)	出口额 (10⁸美元) Export value (10⁸ dollars)	贡献率 Contribu tion rate (%)
粮食 Cereals	出口额变动	-3.62	100	-1.04	100	5.05	100	-0.84	100
	竞争力效应	-8.19	226.24	-2.81	270.19	6.56	129.90	-7.22	859.52
	整体竞争力效应	-8.18	225.97	-2.93	281.73	6.04	119.60	-7.41	882.14
	具体竞争力效应	-0.01	0.28	0.12	-11.54	0.52	10.30	0.19	-22.62
油料 Oilseeds	出口额变动	11.33	100	10.81	100	-4.00	100	18.03	100
	竞争力效应	-1.69	-14.92	-5.11	-47.27	-2.90	72.50	-2.67	-14.81
	整体竞争力效应	-2.67	-23.57	-1.37	-12.67	-3.74	93.50	-3.58	-19.86
	具体竞争力效应	0.98	8.65	-3.74	-34.60	0.84	-21.00	0.91	5.05
糖 Sugar	出口额变动	5.21	100	6.80	100	2.88	100	16.73	100
	竞争力效应	1.91	36.66	2.18	32.06	4.83	167.71	5.65	33.77
	整体竞争力效应	1.97	37.81	1.88	27.65	5.47	189.93	5.89	35.21
	具体竞争力效应	-0.06	-1.15	0.30	4.41	-0.64	-22.22	-0.24	-1.43
棉花 Cotton	出口额变动	70.32	100	79.46	100	-9.11	100	117.36	100
	竞争力效应	30.74	43.71	13.87	17.46	12.44	-136.55	56.26	47.94
	整体竞争力效应	31.90	45.36	8.50	10.70	10.26	-112.62	55.09	46.94
	具体竞争力效应	-1.16	-1.65	5.37	6.76	2.18	-23.93	1.17	1.00

品种 Varieties	项目 Item	2001~2008		2009~2013		2014~2018		2001~2018
品种 Varieties	项目 Item	出口额 (10⁸美元) Export value (10⁸ dollars)	贡献率 Contribu tion rate (%)	出口额 (10⁸美元) Export value (10⁸ dollars)	贡献率 Contribu tion rate (%)	出口额 (10⁸美元) Export value (10⁸ dollars)	贡献率 Contribu tion rate (%)	出口额 (10⁸美元) Export value (10⁸ dollars)	贡献率 Contribu tion rate (%)
粮食 Cereals	出口额变动	-3.62	100	-1.04	100	5.05	100	-0.84	100
	竞争力效应	-8.19	226.24	-2.81	270.19	6.56	129.90	-7.22	859.52
	整体竞争力效应	-8.18	225.97	-2.93	281.73	6.04	119.60	-7.41	882.14
	具体竞争力效应	-0.01	0.28	0.12	-11.54	0.52	10.30	0.19	-22.62
油料 Oilseeds	出口额变动	11.33	100	10.81	100	-4.00	100	18.03	100
	竞争力效应	-1.69	-14.92	-5.11	-47.27	-2.90	72.50	-2.67	-14.81
	整体竞争力效应	-2.67	-23.57	-1.37	-12.67	-3.74	93.50	-3.58	-19.86
	具体竞争力效应	0.98	8.65	-3.74	-34.60	0.84	-21.00	0.91	5.05
糖 Sugar	出口额变动	5.21	100	6.80	100	2.88	100	16.73	100
	竞争力效应	1.91	36.66	2.18	32.06	4.83	167.71	5.65	33.77
	整体竞争力效应	1.97	37.81	1.88	27.65	5.47	189.93	5.89	35.21
	具体竞争力效应	-0.06	-1.15	0.30	4.41	-0.64	-22.22	-0.24	-1.43
棉花 Cotton	出口额变动	70.32	100	79.46	100	-9.11	100	117.36	100
	竞争力效应	30.74	43.71	13.87	17.46	12.44	-136.55	56.26	47.94
	整体竞争力效应	31.90	45.36	8.50	10.70	10.26	-112.62	55.09	46.94
	具体竞争力效应	-1.16	-1.65	5.37	6.76	2.18	-23.93	1.17	1.00