关键词: 谷物贸易; 出口竞争力; 贸易规模; 贸易地理流向; 贸易产品结构; 贸易相关政策

Abstract: 【Objective】 In view of the new characteristics of China's grain trade since 2000, this project aims to study the evolution trend of grain trade, and look forward to the grain trade, so as to provide scientific basis for China to adjust the balance between grain supply and demand and ensure national food security. 【Method】 Basing on the data related to China's grain trade in the UN COMTRADE database from 2000 to 2017,the Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) was employed to analyze the evolution of China's grain trade pattern, to explore the impact of grain-related policies on trade, and finally to forecast the development trend of China's grain trade.【Result】 The results showed that China's grain export changed from strong competitiveness to weaker competitiveness, and competitiveness is weakening; China has changed from a net exporter of cereals to a net importer of cereals; China's grain import and export market and import and export product structure have changed significantly; China's grain import and export market and import and export product structure have changed significantly. After a series of adjustments, the grain support policy has effectively promoted the normal operation of the grain market and guaranteed the income of farmers; Grain imports are subject to tariff quotas for the import of agricultural products, while grain exports are regulated by the State in the light of grain production 【Conclusion 】 China's grain consumption structure has displayed new characteristics. That is, the demand for grain has increased from "quantity" to "quality". Under the constraints of resources and environment, there is limited room for grain yield to increase in China, so there is great potential for further increase in imports.

Key words: grain trade; export competitiveness; trade scale; trade geographical flow; trade product structure; trade-related policy