Objective Baicheng is located in the southern Xinjiang, which is rich in soil, water, temperature, and solar radiation resources. It is a nationally advanced county in grain production and an important grain production base in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The project aims to assess the yield potential of maize under different adaptive cultivation measures by using Hybrid-Maize model in the hope of providing a reference for the high-yield system construction in Baicheng.

Methods This study simulated the yield potential and analyzed yield gap based on the Hybrid-Maize model and the meteorological data of Baicheng in the recent past 10 years (2013~2022).

Results The meteorological data from 2013~2022 showed that the mean daily temperature was 18.5 ℃ during the maize growing season in Baicheng. The inter-annual variation was generally fractional. The accumulated radiation and annual precipitation averaged 3460.7 MJ/m² and 109.2 mm, with the accumulated radiation showing a decreasing trend, and the annual precipitation varying considerably from year to year. Under the different planting density conditions, the simulated results of the Hybrid-Maize model showed that the optimal sowing period in the Baicheng was between 25 April and 5 May, and the optimal sowing date was 29 April, theoretically. The yield gap between the optimal sowing date and the local farmers was 0.9 Mg/hm². The yield potential increased first and then decreased with the increase of the planting density. The theoretical optimal planting density was 13.5×10⁴ plant/hm². In addition, the yield potential under local conditions was 23.2 Mg/hm², while the grain yield of the local farmers was just 14.1 Mg/hm². The yield gap between them reached up to 9.1 Mg/hm and the local farmers only achieved 61% of the yield potential. The yield potential of the Baicheng might be able to reach up to 29.76 Mg/hm² after optimizing the sowing date and the planting density, which was 4.8 Mg/hm² higher than the grain maize yield record in China.

Conclusion The results of the Hybrid-Maize model show that the solar radiation and temperature potential are rich in Baicheng and the maize grain yield in this region can be significantly improved by increasing planting density and adjusting the sowing period under a sufficient supply of water and fertilizer conditions. It is expected to break the national record for maize grain yield.